Retail Industry Has Modest Expectations for Black Friday 2016




You cannot change what you refuse to confront.


Oct 20, 2016 Diana Bell

As the holiday season gets closer, retailers and mall operators are initiating more flexible shopping strategies to compete with e-commerce giants and get customers inside stores. Industry insiders predict a better performance this Black Friday than last year, but caution that doesn’t mean Black Friday 2016 will be one for the record books.

“I anticipate in regards to Black Friday that we will do better than last year, but it won’t be blockbuster,” says Neil Stern, senior partner at Chicago-based consulting firm McMillanDoolittle LLP.



Stern agrees with a forecast from consulting firm Deloitte that total holiday sales will rise 3.6 to 4.0 percent year-over-year, but he is concerned that election results could damper consumers’ holiday spending. “It is hard to get away from the news; results don’t matter in the sense that there will still be pessimism one way or another following the election,” he says. “That could weigh down retail a spending a bit for the holidays.”

ICSC is forecasting 3.3 percent year-over-year growth in total sales for physical stores, saying 91 percent of shoppers will visit a physical store this holiday season. Meanwhile, the National Retail Federation (NRF) has predicted 3.6 percent growth in total sales. “We think it is a good year for retailers, better than the last seven years on average,” says NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, noting the seven-year average was 3.4 percent.


Preliminary figured releases by Thomson Reuters showed that its same-store sales index for September 2016 was expected to come in at -0.3 percent. That’s down from growth of 0.8 percent in September 2015.

Open door policies

Of particular interest is the “mix” of retailer and mall decisions on whether to remain open for Thanksgiving Day.

Choosing to remain open on Thanksgiving could impact Black Friday sales numbers, according to Stephanie Cegielski, ICSC vice president of communications. She says the decision to stay closed on Thanksgiving day couldbe either for reasons of family time or to drive Black Friday sales.

“Black Friday lost lots of luster last season—retailers stayed open from Thanksgiving. Because of online [shopping], there is no need to line up, many shoppers are doing that out of tradition,” Stern adds.

Malls are “actively looking” at different types of experiences they can offer, Cegielski says, adding that retailers are also offering deals sooner. Dreamworks’ interactive pop-up concept DreamPlace will be open at 14 malls globally, 12 of those within the United States. Targeting families, it is an example of the type of experiential initiatives mall operators are occupying floor space with in order to make spending time at malls more attractive, according to Cegielski.

Macy’s recently announced its department stores would remain open on Thanksgiving. Regional mall REIT CBL & Associates has reported its malls will be closed for the holiday. A  spokesperson for Simon Property Group, the largest regional mall REIT in the country, said that “traditionally there are a handful of malls closed for Thanksgiving, but most of them will be open.”

Calls to Macerich regarding its Thanksgiving plans were not returned, but the REIT just announced holiday events for it fashion outlets in Chicago and Niagara Falls, utilizing a mix of social media giveaways, live DJs and Santa-themed get-togethers such as “Pet Night with Santa” and “Milk and Donuts with Santa.”


In addition to themed events, explicit emphasis on connecting with shoppers through mobile devices is another way that retail stores and mall operators are trying to optimize sales at their physical locations.

Nearly 80 percent of shoppers with a mobile device will use it while shopping at stores this holiday season and 90 percent will research their intended purchases online before shopping at a store this year, ICSC reports.

Of the two primary ways that retailers are competing with online to increase store foot traffic, the first is click-and-collect, whereby goods purchased through the store’s website can be picked up in the store. Click-and-collect is an advantage to implement because retailers can capitalize on traffic by increasing the chances of add-on sales while in stores, according to Stern. “Most retailers put foundation in to make that happen, but this holiday season will test how good they will be at fulfilling orders and how much consumers will embrace it,” he says.

They are also offering in-store ordering with shipping to the home, which “can help save a sale and get products to consumers faster,” he adds.

“Balanced messaging to customers to drive traffic to both bricks and digital,” “improving in-store experience and delivery options” and “ensuring inventory is built up properly” are some of the responses retail executives provided to a survey about their marketing and fulfillment investments for this holiday season, according to NRF’s 2016 Retail Holiday Planning Playbook.

Connecting mobile shopping with physical stores is the big retail challenge, as mobile devices are used to start shopping, Kleinhenz says, adding that brick-and-mortar needs to connect with mobile. “To stay relevant, retailers need to make further investment in technology and strategy that is connected to shopping infrastructure. The million-dollar question is how to do it. Nobody has a monopoly on that,” he notes.

This holiday season, retailers are also paying close attention to inventory management, according to Kleinhenz. “Retailers have to give clients choices and have inventory; this year’s big retail issue is balancing product and inventory. Retailers need to be knowledgeable because shoppers are price-savvy. Retailers also need to invest in shipping alternatives.”

Holding onto too much inventory is yet another revenue liability as retailers grapple withdeflation, he says.

“Pricing in retail has been significantly impacted by deflation. Consumers today are buying goods more cheaply than they did a year or two ago. It put a real dent in retailer margins,” Kleinhenz notes. “There is very little pricing power on retail goods, and this affects store formats and locations. Even large-format, big-warehouse type enterprises are making adjustments.”



Are you ready to sell your Commercial Building in Phoenix  –  Maricopa County , please call me.


I am actively looking to build relationships with Real Estate Investors and Owner Users  for  multi-family, office, retail, industrial and land in Phoenix- Scottsdale-Tucson-Arizona.


Why Phoenix?  This is a very interesting article, you should read it, amazing, there were only 350 K people living in Phoenix in 1950


Phoenix Commercial Real Estate and Investment Real Estate: investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move in Commercial Properties or Investment Properties in Phoenix / Tucson / Arizona, as the market has a lot of moving parts today. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land in Phoenix / Tucson / Arizona.  Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands Commercial Properties and Investment Properties.

I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net CCIM, Kasten Long Commercial Group.  I also sold  hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of  Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with  brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( ) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also international.  Click here to find out what is a CCIM:



Reasons to Consider me for Commercial Referrals – I have the Knowledge and Experience


Click here to View My Listings and Profile


Click here to find out what is a CCIM:


Click here to view my website:


Interactive Map Of All 10+ Unit Apartment Listings in Metro Phoenix


Interactive  Metro Phoenix Map of New Apartment Construction by Completion Status


Click her to join my mailing list :


AZREIA Market Update | March 2016



Walter Unger CCIM –   – 1-520-975-5207  –

2016 Official Arizona Visitors Guide

Visit Arizona

Why Phoenix?  This is a very interesting article, you should read it, amazing, there were only 350 K people living in Phoenix in 1950



Timeline of Phoenix, Arizona history,_Arizona_history


Phoenix, Arizona,_Arizona



Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013

Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.

  • 1-520-975-5207

Check out my professional profile and connect with me on LinkedIn.

Follow me on Facebook:


Follow me on Twitter:

Follow Me on Google+


  1. Interactive Map Of All 10+ Unit Apartment Listings in Metro Phoenix


  1. Interactive  Metro Phoenix Map of New Apartment Construction by Completion Status



Kasten Long Commercial Group tracks all advertised apartment communities, including those advertised by other brokerages.  The interactive map  shows the location of each community (10+ units) and each location is color coded by the size (number of total units). 

Click here for Map of Apartments for Sale (10+units)



Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS

I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years.  If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial /  Investment Properties in Arizona,  I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us. 


Please reply by e-mail or call me on my cell 520-975-5207


Walter Unger CCIM

Senior Associate Broker 

Kasten Long Commercial Group

2821 E. Camelback Rd. Suite 600

Phoenix , AZ 85016

Direct:    520-975-5207   

Fax:       602-865-7461

View My Listings and Profile

Join My Mailing List

What is a CCIM?

Reasons to Consider me for Commercial Referrals



Delivering the New Standard of Excellence in Commercial Real Estate 

  • Commercial Real Estate Scottsdale
  • Commercial Real Estate Phoenix
  • Commercial Real Estate Arizona
  • Commercial Investment Properties Phoenix
  • Commercial Investment Properties Scottsdale
  • Commercial Investment Properties Arizona
  • Land Specialist Arizona
  • Arizona Land Specialist
  • Land Specialist Phoenix
  • Phoenix Land Specialist
  • Land For Sale Phoenix
  • Land for sale Arizona
  • Commercial Properties For Sale Phoenix
  • Commercial Real Estate Sales Phoenix
  • Commercial Properties Phoenix
  • Commercial Properties Arizona
  • Commercial Land Specialist Phoenix
  • Commercial Land Phoenix
  • Multifamily land Phoenix
  • Retail Land Phoenix
  • Industrial Land Phoenix
  • Land Commercial Phoenix
  • Land Retail Phoenix
  • Land Industrial Phoenix
  • Land Multifamily Phoenix
  • Industrial Land for sale Phoenix
  • Land Industrial
  • P
  • Investment Real Estate


Disclaimer of Liability

The information in this blog-newsletter is for general guidance only, and does not constitute the provision of legal advice, tax advice, accounting services, investment advice, or professional consulting of any kind. The information provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, legal, or other competent advisers. Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a professional adviser who has been provided with all pertinent facts relevant to your particular situation. Tax articles in this e-newsletter are not intended to be used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of avoiding accuracy-related penalties that may be imposed on the taxpayer. The information is provided “as is,” with no assurance or guarantee of completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose.