“You are the average of the five people you spend the most time with.”
Trepp CMBS Research October 2016
Again; Readings for All Five Major Property Types Increase
The Trepp CMBS Delinquency Rate continued its ascent in October. The rate began to rise in March as loans from the 2006 and 2007 vintages started to reach their maturity dates, which has caused the reading to move higher in seven of the last eight months. The delinquency rate for US commercial real estate loans in CMBS is now 4.98%, an increase of 20 basis points from September. The rate is now only 25 basis points lower than the year-ago level. At one point this year, the rate was showing a year-over-year improvement of 143 basis points. The delinquency reading is now 19 basis points lower since the beginning of the year. The rate hit a multi-year low of 4.15% in February 2016. The all-time high was 10.34% in July 2012. In October, CMBS loans that were previously delinquent but paid off with a loss or at par totaled about $820 million. Removing these previously distressed assets from the numerator of the delinquency calculation helped move the rate down by 18 basis points. Almost $500 million in loans were cured last month, which helped push delinquencies lower by another 10 basis points. However, over $1.9 billion in loans became newly delinquent in October, which put 42 basis points of upward pressure on the delinquency rate. A reduction in the denominator due to the maturation of performing loans accounted for the remainder of the difference. The Numbers: • The overall US CMBS delinquency rate increased 20 basis points to 4.98%. • The percentage of seriously delinquent loans (60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure, REO, or non-performing balloons) is now 4.87%, also up 20 basis points for the month.
- Over $2 billion in loans were defeased in October. If defeased loans were taken out of the equation, the overall 30-day delinquency rate would be 5.20%, an increase of 21 basis points from September.
Historical Perspective:
- One year ago, the US CMBS delinquency rate was 5.23%.
- Six months ago, the US CMBS delinquency rate was 4.23%.
- One year ago, the rate of seriously delinquent loans was 5.10%.
- Six months ago, the rate of seriously delinquent loans was 4.13%.
Property Type Analysis:
- The industrial delinquency rate jumped 26 basis points to 5.54%.
- The lodging delinquency rate increased 18 basis points to 3.43%.
- The multifamily delinquency rate moved up eight basis points to 2.41%. Apartment loans are the best-performing major property type.
- The office delinquency rate rose 11 basis points to 6.44%.
- The retail delinquency rate added 30 basis points to 6.19%.
For inquiries about the data analysis conducted in this research, contact press@trepp.com or call 212-754-1010. For more information on Trepp’s CMBS products, contact info@trepp.com.
About Trepp Trepp, LLC, founded in 1979, is the leading provider of information, analytics and technology to the CMBS, commercial real estate and banking markets. Trepp provides primary and secondary market participants with the web-based tools and insight they need to increase their operational efficiencies, information transparency and investment performance. From its offices in New York, San Francisco and London, Trepp serves its clients with products and services to support trading, research, risk management, surveillance and portfolio management. Trepp is wholly-owned by DMGI, the information publishing division of the Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT).
SEE IT ALL: pdf october2016cmbsdelinquencyreport
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Phoenix Commercial Real Estate and Investment Real Estate: investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move in Commercial Properties or Investment Properties in Phoenix / Tucson / Arizona, as the market has a lot of moving parts today. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land in Phoenix / Tucson / Arizona. Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands Commercial Properties and Investment Properties.
I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net CCIM, Kasten Long Commercial Group. I also sold hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( www.ccim.com ) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also international. Click here to find out what is a CCIM: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCIM
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2016 Official Arizona Visitors Guide
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Timeline of Phoenix, Arizona history
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix,_Arizona
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Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013
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Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.
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Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS
I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years. If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial / Investment Properties in Arizona, I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us.
Please reply by e-mail walterunger@ccim.net or call me on my cell 520-975-5207
Walter Unger CCIM
Senior Associate Broker
Kasten Long Commercial Group
2821 E. Camelback Rd. Suite 600
Phoenix , AZ 85016
Direct: 520-975-5207
Fax: 602-865-7461
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