”If everything seems under control, you are not going fast enough.”
Moderation Continues for Multifamily Rents
Average U.S. monthly rents fell slightly in November for the third straight month, as growth continues to moderate. Rents dropped by $2 in November, to $1,214, according to Yardi Matrix’s monthly survey of 123 markets, and are down $5 from the peak reached in August. On a year-over-year basis, rents grew 4.3% nationwide in November, a 10-basis-point decline from October and a 240-basis-point drop from the recent high of 6.7%, in October 2015.
Reasons for the decline include seasonality and the ongoing supply-demand imbalance in the luxury sector of many markets. Rent growth normally slows or reverses in the latter part of the year, as fewer people move during the holidays. The other reason for the slowdown is the drop in growth in the high-end Lifestyle segment, which declined by 0.2% in the trailing three-month period. The increased supply of Lifestyle units puts pressure on the segment’s performance, particularly in markets with weakening job growth. Sacramento still leads the nation year over-year, though the metro’s growth rate has moderated to 9.0%.
Despite the moderation, we once again stress that the multifamily market will be in good shape going forward. Rent growth remains 200 basis points above the long-term average and fundamentals are strong. The occupancy rate for stabilized properties—at 95.8%—has moved only slightly despite the addition of 300,000 new units in 2016. That reflects robust absorption in most metros that we expect will continue, no matter who occupies the White House. In fact, while the results of the recent U.S. election—with Donald Trump winning the presidency and Republicans gaining complete control of Congress—will bring major change in policies, producing both opportunities and challenges for commercial real estate, the basic strength of the multifamily market is likely baked in by demographics and social trends.
Trailing 3 Months: Lifestyle Weakness Drops T3 Rents
Nationally, multifamily rents fell 0.2% on a trailing three-month (T-3) basis in November, marking a 20-basis-point decline from October. The T3 numbers reflect a mixture of seasonality and the impact of supply and affordability issues, particularly in higher-end Lifestyle properties, where rents fell -0.4%. Rents in the working-class Renter-byNecessity (RBN) segment were unchanged. Two-thirds (20) of the top 30 metros had negative T-3 growth overall, while 23 had negative growth in the Lifestyle segment.
The T-3 survey captures short-term changes in rents that may or may not be indicative of future trends, but overall, the losers were led by Denver (-0.9%), San Francisco (-0.9%), Baltimore (-0.7%), Boston (-0.6%), Seattle (-0.6%) and Portland (-0.6%). Most of those metros were at the high end of rent growth earlier in the year; the flip to the bottom reflects the facts that rents were due to revert to the mean and/or that the markets are feeling the pinch of new supply. In particular, Denver, San Francisco, Seattle and Portland are high-growth metros that will continue to see strong demand and job growth, though rent increases are likely to stabilize at lower levels, following the huge run-ups.
On the high end of the ranking are mostly warm-weather metros where seasonality is less of a factor, including Orange County (0.7%), Richmond (0.3%), Phoenix (0.3%), Las Vegas (0.3%) and Miami (0.2%)…………………….. SEEE IT ALL: yardi-matrix-monthly-nov-2016
Phoenix Commercial Real Estate and Investment Real Estate: investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move in Commercial Properties or Investment Properties in Phoenix / Tucson / Arizona, as the market has a lot of moving parts today. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land in Phoenix / Tucson / Arizona. Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands Commercial Properties and Investment Properties.
I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net CCIM, Kasten Long Commercial Group. I also sold hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( www.ccim.com ) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also international. Click here to find out what is a CCIM: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCIM
Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.
Kasten Long Commercial Group tracks all advertised apartment communities, including those advertised by other brokerages. The interactive map shows the location of each community (10+ units) and each location is color coded by the size (number of total units).
Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS
I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years. If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial / Investment Properties in Arizona, I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us.
Please reply by e-mail email@example.com or call me on my cell 520-975-5207
Walter Unger CCIM
Senior Associate Broker
Kasten Long Commercial Group
2821 E. Camelback Rd. Suite 600
Phoenix , AZ 85016
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