Whether you think you can or you think you can’t, you’re right. –Henry Ford
• More favorable rate environment drives improvement in traffic, though levels continue to disappoint: Our Buyer Traffic Index increased 6 points in November to 35 from 29 in October; while improving, demand remains below agents’ expectations (level of 50). We would characterize the sequential improvement in our index as likely being roughly half due to lower rates and half due to seasonality (since agents expect less traffic at this time of year, it becomes easier to meet or exceed expectations, with our Traffic Index seeing an average 3.4 pt increase in November from 2010-2013). On the margin, we saw more comments from agents indicating a positive buyer response to lower rates, though this was still far from universal. In addition, the improvement came against a backdrop of flat or lower home prices in many markets. Overall commentary regarding buyer traffic continues to routinely cite lack of urgency, buyer pushback on prices, inventory, and weak confidence. Regionally, Florida and the Northwest joined Texas as outperformers, while California, New York and the Mid-Atlantic were rather sluggish.
• Traffic remains below expectations in two-thirds of markets, though slightly better vs. October: In November, 28 of the 40 markets we surveyed saw lower than expected traffic (36 in October), 8 markets saw traffic in-line with expectations (2 in October), and 4 markets saw better than expected traffic (2 in October). Some of the best trends were seen in the Northwest (Portland and Seattle experienced sharp increases). In TX, Austin showed strength and San Antonio met expectations, while Houston experienced a pullback although agents didn’t blame lower oil prices (this could change if lower prices eventually lead to delayed relocations and/or layoffs). Traffic met expectations in Charlotte, Jacksonville, and Tampa. Notable weakness was seen in Baltimore (lowest reading), Inland Empire, Phoenix, Sacramento, San Diego, New York and Chicago.
• Home price growth continuing to flatten: Home prices were generally flat sequentially again in November (3rd consecutive month of flat HPA), as our Price Index came in at 52, flat vs. October. Of the 40 markets we survey, 14 saw higher prices in November (17 in October), 13 saw flat prices (7 in October) and 13 saw lower prices (16 in October). Weakest price trends were seen in Phoenix, D.C., and San Diego (all posting readings below 30), while the strongest price index readings were seen in Sarasota, Tampa, Ft. Myers, San Antonio, and Houston (all with readings above 70).
November Survey of Real Estate Agents – Low Rates Help Bring a Few Buyers Back but Price Sensitivity Continues
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Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS
I am a successful Commercial Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years and I worked with banks and their commercial REO properties for 3 years. I am also a commercial landspecialist in Phoenix and a Landspecialist in Arizona.
WHETHER YOU LEASE OR OWN NOW IS THE TIME FOR YOU TO EXPAND, UPGRADE OR INVEST IN REAL ESTATE
we are at on the a rise of the cycle in Commercial Real Estate. so there is only one way and it’s called we are going up and now is the time for you to expand, upgrade or invest in Commercial Properties in Phoenix. The prices on deals I may get you will not be around forever.
If you have any questions about Commercial Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial Investment Properties in Arizona, I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion in Commercial Properties in Phoenix or Commercial Properties in Arizona with you.Obviously I am also in this to make money, but it could be a win-win situation for all of us.
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Walter Unger CCIM
Associate Broker, West USA Commercial Real Estate Advisers
7077 E. Marilyn Road, Bldg 4, Suite 130
Scottsdale, AZ 85254
Office : 480-948-5554
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