Millions saw the apple fall, but Newton was the one who asked why.
Jan 21, 2016 Michael Steinberg and Barbara Byrne Denham
Leading up to the economic downturn in 2008, retail was the only property type to experience a significant inventory increase. Between 2000 and 2008, total retail stock increased by 14.2 percent, more than double the inventory increase observed in the apartment and office sectors. Almost eight years later, we are left with a sector that has been overbuilt and under-demolished. Speculative construction has not returned to the market, very few new centers are being built and even expansions of existing centers remain relatively rare.
Neighborhood and community center inventory increased by just 1.2 million sq. ft. during the fourth quarter of 2015. This is well below the historical average of 5.2 million sq. ft. that the sector added in a typical quarter during the past 15 years. Prior to the recession, quarterly new construction averaged as high as 8.0 million sq. ft. per quarter. This dearth of new supply is, however, buoying rents and vacancies in a still relatively low-demand retail environment. Will this perceived recovery help thaw developer interest in retail over the next three years? What will be the implication of new supply on real estate fundamentals?
Between 2014 and 2017, Reis expects around 34.0 million sq. ft. of new retail supply to hit the market. While this would almost eclipse total new stock that has been added to the market since 2009, it would not have been unusual to see that level of new development in one single year during the 2000-2007 period. The vacancy rate should continue its downward trajectory, slow as it has been, and will likely reach the low 9 percent range by the end of 2017. Even with suppressed construction activity, the rate will likely remain elevated above pre-recession levels in the coming years.
A handful of markets will lead the way in terms of completions over the three-year forecast horizon. Large Texas markets, including Houston and Dallas, register at the top of Reis’s 80 primary retail markets for forecasted construction levels. Chicago, Philadelphia and Atlanta round out the top five markets.
On an inventory growth rate basis, the top five markets are a mixed bag. Louisville takes the top spot, with a three-year forecasted inventory growth rate of 5.2 percent. Despite the large increase, absorption is expected to outpace new supply by 21.5 percent. The remainder of the top markets by forecasted inventory growth rate—Austin, Texas, Charlotte, N.C., Kansas City, Mo. and Knoxville, Tenn.—all have three-year forecasted inventory growth rates that exceed 3.4 percent, but they also follow the national trend of historically low new supply that will be offset by tepid yet consistent demand. No increase in vacancy or negative rent growth is expected, even at this high end.
With some modest improvement in the outlook for wage growth starting to materialize, the outlook for discretionary spending and thus demand for retail space should be brighter in 2016 than at any point in time since before the recession. While the pace of improvement in retail does not look very robust, it will nonetheless present opportunities for investors and lenders willing to take some chances.
Michael Steinberg is senior analyst and Barbara Byrne Denham is economist with New York City-based research firm Reis Inc.
Phoenix Commercial Real Estate and Investment Real Estate: investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move in Commercial Properties or Investment Properties in Phoenix / Tucson / Arizona, as the market has a lot of moving parts today. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land in Phoenix / Tucson / Arizona. Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands Commercial Properties and Investment Properties.
I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net CCIM, Kasten Long Commercial Group. I also sold hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( www.ccim.com ) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also international. Click here to find out what is a CCIM: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCIM
WHY PHOENIX ARIZONA : ???
Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.
Kasten Long Commercial Group tracks all advertised apartment communities, including those advertised by other brokerages. The interactive map shows the location of each community (10+ units) and each location is color coded by the size (number of total units).
Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS
I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years. If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial / Investment Properties in Arizona, I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us.
Please reply by e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org or call me on my cell 520-975-5207
Walter Unger CCIM
Senior Associate Broker
Kasten Long Commercial Group
2821 E. Camelback Rd. Suite 600
Phoenix , AZ 85016
Delivering the New Standard of Excellence in Commercial Real Estate
- Commercial Real Estate Scottsdale
- Commercial Real Estate Phoenix
- Commercial Real Estate Arizona
- Commercial Investment Properties Phoenix
- Commercial Investment Properties Scottsdale
- Commercial Investment Properties Arizona
- Land Specialist Arizona
- Arizona Land Specialist
- Land Specialist Phoenix
- Phoenix Land Specialist
- Land For Sale Phoenix
- Land for sale Arizona
- Commercial Properties For Sale Phoenix
- Commercial Real Estate Sales Phoenix
- Commercial Properties Phoenix
- Commercial Properties Arizona
- Commercial Land Specialist Phoenix
- Commercial Land Phoenix
- Multifamily land Phoenix
- Retail Land Phoenix
- Industrial Land Phoenix
- Land Commercial Phoenix
- Land Retail Phoenix
- Land Industrial Phoenix
- Land Multifamily Phoenix
- Industrial Land for sale Phoenix
- Land Industrial
- Investment Real Estate
Disclaimer of Liability
The information in this blog-newsletter is for general guidance only, and does not constitute the provision of legal advice, tax advice, accounting services, investment advice, or professional consulting of any kind. The information provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, legal, or other competent advisers. Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a professional adviser who has been provided with all pertinent facts relevant to your particular situation. Tax articles in this e-newsletter are not intended to be used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of avoiding accuracy-related penalties that may be imposed on the taxpayer. The information is provided “as is,” with no assurance or guarantee of completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose.