“You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur “ I AM YOUR LAND / COMMERCIAL AND INVESTMENT REAL ESTATE SPECIALIST / LOOKING FOR OWNERS & BUYERS. Call me if you want to sell your property and need an estimated value. Prefer cell: 520-975-5207 or email me walterunger@ccim.net. A CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY $ 60 MIL OF LISTINGS
In the third quarter of 2019, the United States reached its longest economic expansion in history, which caused some people to wonder whether we were overdue for a correction. Additionally, global uncertainty resulted in a flight to safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, prompting the dreaded inversion of the yield curve. When that happened, we discussed that there is an undeniable correlation between a yield curve inversion and a recession following one-to-two years after, but we questioned the causal effect. Does a yield curve inversion today represent a lower expectation of domestic economic growth, or does it reflect the global demand for safe assets?
“The U.S. housing market has weathered all recessions since 1980, with the exception of the Great Recession.”
An economic expansion doesn’t just die of old age, something has to kill it. So far, that has not happened. Yet, while last summer’s concern about an imminent recession may have been a false alarm, recession isn’t indefinitely avoidable. Interestingly, the housing market has proven to be relatively resilient during recessions, with one important exception. In 2020, we argue the housing market is more likely poised to help stave off recession than fall victim to it.
All Hail the U.S. Consumer
The formal definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of declines in the gross domestic product (GDP). In other words, a recession is a slowdown in economic activity that occurs as consumers and businesses spend less money. While every recession is unique, most recessions are broadly caused by demand shocks (i.e. financial crisis or economic downturn in a trading partner) or supply shocks (i.e. spike in oil prices or a natural disaster) to the economy.
Looking back, it’s easier to explain the causes of an economic downturn. Take for example, the 1973-1975 recession, which was largely caused by an adverse oil supply shock that quadrupled oil prices triggered a decline in the U.S. economy. In today’s economy, it’s likely that the cause of the next recession won’t be a supply shock, but a demand shock. Why? Approximately 70 percent of U.S. economic growth is driven by domestic consumer spending. If the outlook for the domestic consumer remains strong, then the risk of recession is reduced.
Housing Market Resilience to Recessions
Does an economic recession imply a housing recession? While the housing crisis is still fresh on the minds of many, and was the catalyst of the Great Recession, the U.S. housing market has weathered all other recessions since 1980. With the exception of the Great Recession, house price appreciation hardly skipped a beat and year-over-year existing-home sales growth barely declined in all the other previous recessions in the last 40 years.
Unlike 2008, the housing market today is not driven by homeowners who are highly leveraged, as shown by the fact that the household debt-to-income ratio is at a four-decade low. Additionally, the housing crisis in the Great Recession was fueled heavily by the fact that job loss was paired with a significant share of homeowners who didn’t have much equity in their homes.
On the whole, homeowners have very high levels of tappable home equity today, providing a cushion to withstand potential price declines. Today, it’s reasonable to expect homeowners to stay where they are if the economy wavered and wait until they feel more financially confident to move, or tap into home equity for recurring expenses, or sell and pay off their mortgages if necessary. In fact, the housing market may actually aid the economy in recovering from the next recession – a role it has traditionally played in previous economic recoveries.
FROM ME:
Phoenix Commercial Real Estate and Investment Real Estate: Investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move in owner user Commercial Properties, Investment Properties and land in Phoenix / Maricopa County, Pinal County / Arizona, Properties and Investment Properties. I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net CCIM, Kasten Long Commercial Group. I also sold hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( www.ccim.com ) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also international as the market has a lot of moving parts today. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands Commercial en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCIM I AM YOUR LAND / INDUSTRIAL AND INVESTMENT SPECIALIST / LOOKING FOR OWNERS CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY $ 60 MIL OF LISTINGS PLEASE CALL ME – cell: 520-975-5207 or email me walterunger@ccim.net
WEEKLY LAND SALES
“The major fortunes in America have been made in land.” John D. Rockefeller
WEEKLY INDUSTRIAL SALES:
I AM YOUR LAND / INDUSTRIAL AND INVESTMENT SPECIALIST / LOOKING FOR OWNERS CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY $ 60 MIL OF LISTINGS
CLICK HERE FOR APARTMENTS FOR SALE:
Walter Unger CCIM
Associate Broker
West USA Commercial Division
7077 E MARILYN RD.
Suite 200, Building 4.
Scottsdale AZ, 85254
Phone: 480-948-5554
Cell: 520-975-5207
I AM YOUR LAND / INDUSTRIAL AND INVESTMENT SPECIALIST / LOOKING FOR OWNERS
“You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur “ ARE YOU READY TO SELL OR PURCHASE YOUR INDUSTRIAL / OFFICE OR RETAIL BUILDING OR YOUR LAND in Phoenix, Maricopa County and Pinal County, Arizona, please call me. Office: 602-445-4113, , cell: 520-975-5207 or email me walterunger@ccim.net. … CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY LISTINGS.
Let me know if you are interested in Apartments: CLICK HERE FOR APARTMENTS FOR SALE
CLICK HERE: Arizona Opportunity Zones As We Understand /maps. Interested!!! Please contact me.
History of Arizona from 900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.
8 Reasons You Should Invest in Land
History of Arizona from 900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.
WHY PHOENIX? AMAZING!!! POPULATION IN 1950 – 350 K PEOPLE; “NOW 5 MIL”. – “5TH. BIGGEST CITY IN USA”
DOT – LOOP 202 / SOUTH MOUNTAIN FREEWAY / PHOENIX AZ – UNDER CONSTRUCTION
ARIZONA FACTS – YEAR 1848 TO 2013
- DEMOGRAPHIC FACTS ABOUT MARICOPA COUNTY:
- The average age of the population is 34 years old.
- The health cost index score in this area is 102.1. (100 = national average)
- Here are some of the distributions of commute times for the area: <15 min (22.7%), 15-29 min (36.8%), 30-44 min (25.1%), 45-59 min (8.6%), >60 min (6.8%).
LIST OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS IN PINAL COUNTY, REVISED 2-14-17
Reasons to Consider me for Commercial Referrals – I have the Knowledge and Experience
Click here to find out what is a CCIM:
Click here to view my website:
Click her to join my mailing list :
Walter Unger CCIM – walterunger@ccim.net – 1-520-975-5207 – http://walter-unger.com
Timeline of Phoenix, Arizona history
Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013
Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.
Walter Unger CCIM
Associate Broker
West USA Commercial Division
7077 E MARILYN RD.
Suite 200, Building 4.
Scottsdale AZ, 85254
Phone: 480-948-5554
Cell: 520-975-5207
I AM YOUR LAND / INDUSTRIAL AND INVESTMENT SPECIALIST / LOOKING FOR OWNERS
“You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur “
Also Call me if you need an estimated value of your Property.
Call me if you want to see a map with what is in the Construction Pipeline for Apartments.
Prefer cell: 520-975-5207, or email me walterunger@ccim.net. CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY LISTINGS.
Check out my professional profile and connect with me on LinkedIn.
Kasten Long Commercial Group tracks all advertised apartment communities, including those advertised by other brokerages. The interactive map shows the location of each community (10+ units) and each location is color coded by the size (number of total units).
Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS
I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years. If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial / Investment Properties in Arizona, I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us.
Please reply by e-mail walterunger@ccim.net or call me on my cell 520-975-5207
Reasons to Consider me for Commercial Referrals
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