“The price of greatness is responsibility.”
ovember 29, 2016 | By Geoffery Metz
NEW YORK CITY—Few things inspire the same level of economic uncertainty as a presidential election. But now that Donald Trump is on track to be sworn…
NEW YORK CITY—Few things inspire the same level of economic uncertainty as a presidential election. But now that Donald Trump is on track to be sworn in on January 20, 2017, what does this mean for commercial real estate, and what will the 45th President be inheriting? In this guest column for ICSC New York National Deal Making, Rick Chichester, president and CEO of Faris Lee Investments, breaks down what investors can expect during the next administration, and what changes are on the horizon. The views expressed below are the author’s own.
The November election, both historic and unprecedented, certainly has everyone asking the obvious questions of how, why and what. How did this happen? Why did this happen? What does this mean?
In my opinion, the answers lie in what only a few have really grasped and understood (certainly Trump did), and that is for as much as we claim to be in a state of economic recovery from the “great recession” there are many who did not experience the recovery.
As imbalanced as the recovery has been and with the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies implemented for far too long, we now have a frustrated middle class who feels left behind and not able to grow its economic prospects. At the same time, we are developing significant asset inflation in many sectors, including real estate, as a result of the Fed’s low rate policy.
The very clear change is how real estate is now performing as compared to all other asset classes. More investors are seeking real estate as a larger part of their investment portfolio as it looks to be a safer, more predictable and secure source of income and equity.
Looking back, 2016 performed as many expected, which was a continuation of the past several years.
Investment activity was good, but not as robust as the recent prior years. Buyers began to be more disciplined in their underwriting and valuations, and there was some dislocation in pricing expectations between buyer and seller.
Generally speaking it was the year that real estate became fully priced. In addition to this, we are experiencing: an economic recovery that is well into its seventh year; corporate profits not only not expanding but in many cases contracting; and the equities market priced at historic highs relative to their PE ratios. This is all causing investors to manage to the down-side risk of an economic slowdown sometime within the next two years. As we near the end of 2016, we now have unemployment, as defined by the Fed, at an 11-year low, recently announced robust consumer spending (which should carry through the Holiday season), strong 3rd quarter GDP growth, and president-elect Donald Trump.
I believe that 2017 will be a very interesting year. With Trump at the helm, there are many actions that we expect to see. We are likely to see the Feds raise rates, as Trump moves from monetary policy to economic expansion via infrastructure investments at an unprecedented pace. He is not afraid to use debt, and he will do his best to lower taxes, repatriate U.S. corporate dollars, and ease the capital markets from the constraints of Dodd-Frank.
Trump believes in the “Free Market” and he will lead accordingly. In the near term this should be a catalyst for strong economic expansion and more acceptable inflation growth, which all bodes well for real estate. With this as a backdrop, real estate will remain extremely relevant as an asset class and even expanding as more investors increase their allocations.
Visit Faris Lee at ICSC New York Booth #1215.
Geoffery Metz is the Digital Production Editor for GlobeSt.com, based in the New York City office. Before joining the GlobeSt.com team, he spent several years overseeing the newsroom at the financial wire service Business Wire, with special focus on multimedia presentation for the web.
Phoenix Commercial Real Estate and Investment Real Estate: investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move in Commercial Properties or Investment Properties in Phoenix / Tucson / Arizona, as the market has a lot of moving parts today. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land in Phoenix / Tucson / Arizona. Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands Commercial Properties and Investment Properties.
I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net CCIM, Kasten Long Commercial Group. I also sold hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( www.ccim.com ) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also international. Click here to find out what is a CCIM: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCIM
Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.
Kasten Long Commercial Group tracks all advertised apartment communities, including those advertised by other brokerages. The interactive map shows the location of each community (10+ units) and each location is color coded by the size (number of total units).
Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS
I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years. If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial / Investment Properties in Arizona, I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us.
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Walter Unger CCIM
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Kasten Long Commercial Group
2821 E. Camelback Rd. Suite 600
Phoenix , AZ 85016
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