You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur. FOR OVER 20 YEARS, I HAVE WORKED EXTENSIVELY WITH OWNERS AND BUYERS IN LAND, COMMERCIAL AND INVESTMENT REAL ESTATE IN PHOENIX, TUCSON AND THROUGHOUT ARIZONA. PLEASE LET ME KNOW HOW I CAN HELP YOU. Call me if you want to sell your property and need an estimated value. Phone / Prefer cell: 520-975-5207
Office: 480-948-5554 or email me walterunger@ccim.net. – What is a CCIM. –
In Business and in Life you don’t get what you deserve, you get what you Negotiate.
LOOKING FOR SELLERS AND BUYERS Land – Industrial – Retail – Office- Multifamily
contact me if you want the me to get you the value of your property.
CCIM DEAL MAKERS FALL 2020 THE BIGGEST DEAL WALTER UNGER, CCIM, WITH WEST USA COMMERCIAL DIVISION IN PHOENIX REPRESENTED GCG HOLDINGS LLC IN ITS $29.43 MILLION SALE OF GOLD CANYON GOLF RESORT AND SPA IN GOLD CANYON, ARIZ., TO GOLD CANYON MJ LLC.
By Thomas P. LaSalvia, PhD, Victor Calanog, PhD, CRE |Still the Darling of CRE?
The multifamily sector has seen continued low vacancy and solid rent growth, but the continued difficulties of the COVID-19 pandemic is putting this strong run in jeopardy. Unemployment that has settled in approximately two percentage points above the natural rate, an uptick in suburban migration to single-family homes, and a slowing of household formation have combined to create uncertainty and concern for a multifamily sector that weathered the Great Recession and has been increasingly thought to be recession-proof.
Is the Concern Warranted?
Yes, at least on the surface. Rents are down about 2 percent, vacancies have hit 5 percent for the first time in eight years, and transaction volume is 50 percent of its recent yearly average. We all should be at least somewhat concerned. But as with any CRE analysis, context and nuance are necessary.
Effective rents in 3Q2020 fell 1.9 percent – the largest quarterly decline on record since REIS began publishing quarterly data in 1999. This is certainly cause for concern, but is it a death sentence? Absolutely not. First off, much of the rent declines came from just three MSAs: San Francisco, New York, and Washington, D.C. Eliminating these dense, expensive cities from the list dramatically decreases the magnitude of the nationwide rent decline. Most areas recorded declines closer to 0.5 percent with some even boasting growth. Secondly, we do expect household formation to pick up and lead to absorption gains as the weather warms up in the spring and vaccines become more widely available. While we still expect vacancy to inch up toward 6.5 percent by the end of 2021, much of this will be due to an overwhelming amount of supply finally coming online after delays caused 2020 to record far fewer completions than initially expected. Supply increases are as much, or maybe more, to blame than declining demand.
What about the capital markets? To blame the decline in activity wholly on the economy would be imprudent. Mandatory office closures, understaffed appraisers and courts, and limited site visits certainly combined to slow the rate of activity and indefinitely pushed off many otherwise solid deals. Given the uptick in 3Q2020 activity versus 2Q2020, we expect activity to dramatically pick up in 2021 as long as health concerns are mostly behind us. As for multifamily values, expect muted growth and some declines due to the overall level of uncertainty. As the economy and migration patterns sort themselves out, dips in value from 5 percent to 10 percent of those in 2019 may not be uncommon through 2021 and into 2022.
Urban vs. Suburban Markets
To parallel the decline in dense urban markets described above, data show approximately twice the rent declines in central business district submarkets versus their suburban counterparts. Details tend to show that both A and B/C segments are struggling a bit in and around CBDs, but for different reasons. For A properties, some upper-income residents have used the pandemic as an excuse to finally make that move to the suburbs. Many residents of B/C properties do not have the income or the down payment funds to make the same jump. While a few have picked up and moved to less expensive Sun Belt cities, others have moved back into their parents’ homes or remained with roommates past the time they expected. We also must account for the disproportionate effect this pandemic has had for low-wage workers. Eviction moratoriums and loan workouts have muddied the data a bit, but unless Congress passes a major relief package or we once again reach full employment (doubtful anytime in the next year or so), we will see further stress on B/C properties.
We expect activity to dramatically pick up in 2021 as long as health concerns are mostly behind us. As for multifamily values, expect muted growth and some declines due to the overall level of uncertainty.
The Darling of CRE?
Even with some of the concerns listed above, multifamily is holding up well, and consensus forecasts continue to point towards stability. Given this, the sector will continue to get its fair share of investment dollars, and maybe even more given the issues facing retail, hospitality, and office. Only industrial, with its e-commerce-inspired boom, can be put into the same category; but even there, greater uncertainty exists. Any significant pullback in the economy or slowdown in recovery will quickly halt consumer spending and cause problems for warehouse and distribution. The same situation for multifamily will also be problematic, but likely less so. Households still need shelter, and a move to a single-family home in the suburbs becomes more troublesome during a poor economic climate. Maybe multifamily is, after all, recession- and pandemic-proof.
Thomas P. LaSalvia, PhD Senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Reis.
Victor Calanog, PhD, CRE Victor Calanog, PhD, CRE, is the chief economist and senior vice president at Moody’s Analytics Reis.
SEE IT ALLWITH GRAPHS https://www.ccim.com/cire-magazine/articles/2021/winter/still-the-darling-of-cre-/
FROM ME: Now is the time, if you are thinking of selling or purchasing your Land or Commercial Building in Phoenix, Scottsdale, Maricopa County, Pinal County, Arizona / Office / Retail / Industrial / Multi-family / please call me on my cell 520-975-5207 or e-mail me walterunger@ccim.net. Investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move. The market has a lot of moving parts. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands your needs. I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net, CCIM, CREXi, Catylist, and various other web sites. I also sold hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( www.ccim.com ) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also international. Are you ready to sell or purchase your Land or Commercial Building in Phoenix, Scottsdale, Maricopa County and Pinal County, Arizona, please call me?
In Business and in Life you don’t get what you deserve, you get what you Negotiate.
LOOKING FOR SELLERS AND BUYERS Land – Industrial – Retail – Office – Multifamily
contact me if you want the me to get you the value of your property.
Click here to find out what is a CCIM: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCIM
CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY LISTINGS.
https://www.crexi.com/properties?searchBrokerId=17513
http://walter-unger.com/gold-canyon-resort-sells-for-29-4m/
Walter Unger CCIM
Associate Broker
West USA Commercial Division
7077 E MARILYN RD.
Suite 200, Building 4.
Scottsdale AZ, 85254
Phone: 480-948-5554
Cell: 520-975-5207
History of Arizona from 900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.
History of Arizona from 900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.
History of Arizona from 900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.
WHY PHOENIX? AMAZING!!! POPULATION IN 1950 – 350 K PEOPLE; “NOW 5 MIL”. – “5TH. BIGGEST CITY IN USA”
- DEMOGRAPHIC FACTS ABOUT MARICOPA COUNTY:
Walter Unger CCIM – walterunger@ccim.net – 1-520-975-5207 – http://walter-unger.com
Timeline of Phoenix, Arizona history
Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013
CLICK HERE: Arizona Opportunity Zones As We Understand /maps. Interested!!! Please contact me.
Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.
Walter Unger CCIM
Associate Broker
West USA Commercial Division
7077 E MARILYN RD.
Suite 200, Building 4.
Scottsdale AZ, 85254
Phone: 480-948-5554
Cell: 520-975-5207
FOR OVER 20 YEARS, I HAVE WORKED EXTENSIVELY WITH OWNERS AND BUYERS IN LAND, COMMERCIAL AND INVESTMENT REAL ESTATE IN PHOENIX, TUCSON AND THROUGHOUT ARIZONA. PLEASE LET ME KNOW HOW I CAN HELP YOU PLEASE CALL ME
CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY 60 MIL WORTH OF LISTINGS.
https://www.crexi.com/properties?searchBrokerId=17513
Also Call me if you need an estimated value of your Property.
Call me if you want to see a map with what is in the Construction Pipeline for Apartments.
Prefer cell: 520-975-5207, or email me walterunger@ccim.net. CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY LISTINGS.
Check out my professional profile and connect with me on LinkedIn.
Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS
I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years. If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial / Investment Properties in Arizona, I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us.
Please reply by e-mail walterunger@ccim.net or call me on my cell 520-975-5207
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LOOKING FOR SELLERS AND BUYERS Land -Industrial – Retail – Multifamily