“You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur “
ARMLS DATA for MARCH 2017 – Published April 21, 2017
http://armls.com/docs/STAT-MARCH-2017.pdf
Sales continue to be hot, even taking into consideration the fact that we are in the high season. MLS sales volume for the first three months of 2017 was 11.54% higher than 2017. There were 21,483 sales reported in Q1 2017 compared to 19,261 for the first quarter of 2016. Looking at public record resale sales volume in Maricopa County for the first quarter of 2017, we see that it was the third highest volume in the 19 years we’ve reported data. Only the peak bubble years of 2005 and 2006 had higher resale sales volume.
A cool top and a smoking hot bottom doesn’t just describe my upcoming summer wardrobe, it’s also an apt description of the current state of our resale housing market. This month in STAT we take a closer look at our feverish bottom price ranges. Contract ratios were created by Michael Orr of the Cromford Report as a means to communicate the relationship between supply and demand in a given market area. Cromford translates the contract ratio as: 0-20 is Cool, 21-40 is Warm, 41-74 is Warmer, 75-99 is Hot and 100+ is a FRENZY! The next map below shows the contract ratio by ZIP code for the frenzied markets in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. The contract ratio is calculated by dividing the number of homes under contract by the number of active listings. The map below also identifies the areas where the contract ratio is greater than 100, meaning the number of homes under contract is greater than the number of active listings. An example would be 85033 where currently there are 108 homes under contract and 73 active listings leaving a contract ratio of 147. Also displayed are the frenzied ZIP codes, not to be confused with the friend zone.
The common thread for the hottest of the hot sectors of our market is price point. When we view a zip code map showing the average sales price between $100,000 and $200,000 and then again $200,000 to $300,000, we see a remarkable similarity between the two maps.
With insufficient supply and strong demand from entry level buyers, I see no relief in sight. We are just now seeing the beginning ground swell of millennial buyers. Couple a large population base of looming buyers with a median new build price of $320,000 and I see little to no immediate relief of added inventory for homes priced below $300,000. Home prices in these areas will continue to rise as will our overall median sales price. Properties listed in these areas and price points find the selling agents confident and the buying agents frantic. The ARMLS Pending Price Index (PPI) Last month STAT projected a median sales price for March of $229,000. The actual median sales price was $230,000, $1,000 higher than the $229,000 projected by our mathematical model. In 2016 our mathematical projections tended to be lower than the actual results for most of the year, it appears our model is following a similar path in 2017. Looking ahead to April, the ARMLS Pending Price Index projects a median sales price of $233,000. With limited supply and steady demand, particularly at the lower price points, I fully expect the median in April to exceed March.
MLS sales volume in March was 9,116 or 8.4% higher than the total of 8,412 last year, accounting for 166 more sales than our projected total of 8,950. Sales volume for the first three months of 2017 is 11.54% higher than 2017, with 21,483 sales in 2017 compared to 19,261 in the first quarter of 2016. We begin April with 7,616 pending contracts, 4,629 UCB listings and 544 CCBS giving us a total of 12,789 residential listings practically under contract. This com- pares to 12,545 of the same type of listings at this time last year suggesting the sales volume in April 2017 will surpass the 8,293 of April 2016. STAT is projecting 8,800 sales in April. Note, there were 21 business days in 2016 and only 20 business days this year.
SEE IT ALL:
ARMLS DATA for MARCH 2017 – Published April 21, 2017
http://armls.com/docs/STAT-MARCH-2017.pdf
- FROM ME:
- Phoenix Commercial Real Estate and Investment Real Estate: Investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move in owner user Commercial Properties, Investment Properties and land in Phoenix / Maricopa County, Pinal County / Arizona, as the market has a lot of moving parts today. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands Commercial Properties and Investment Properties. I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net CCIM, Kasten Long Commercial Group. I also sold hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( ccim.com) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also internationalClick here to find out what is a CCIM: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCIM
- WEEKLY LAND CLOSING UPDATE / THROUGH April 14, 2017 / Phoenix Arizona Metro, Maricopa County, Pinal County.
WEEKLY APARTMENT CLOSING UPDATE / THROUGH April 14, 2017 / Phoenix Arizona Metro
- DEMOGRAPHIC FACTS ABOUT MARICOPA COUNTY:
- The average age of the population is 34 years old.
- The health cost index score in this area is 102.1. (100 = national average)
- Here are some of the distributions of commute times for the area: <15 min (22.7%), 15-29 min (36.8%), 30-44 min (25.1%), 45-59 min (8.6%), >60 min (6.8%).
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Walter Unger CCIM – walterunger@ccim.net – 1-520-975-5207 – http://walter-unger.com
2016 Official Arizona Visitors Guide
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Timeline of Phoenix, Arizona history
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Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013
Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.
1-520-975-5207
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Kasten Long Commercial Group tracks all advertised apartment communities, including those advertised by other brokerages. The interactive map shows the location of each community (10+ units) and each location is color coded by the size (number of total units).
Click here for Map of Apartments for Sale (10+units)
Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS
I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years. If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial / Investment Properties in Arizona, I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us.
Please reply by e-mail walterunger@ccim.net or call me on my cell 520-975-5207
Walter Unger CCIM
Senior Associate Broker
Kasten Long Commercial Group
5110 N 40th Street, Suite 110
Phoenix , AZ 85018
Direct: 520-975-5207
Fax: 602-865-7461
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