Real Estate Market Cycle Monitor Third Quarter / Mueller 2018 Analysis

 

 

 

“You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur “  

Please check maps if your Land or Commercial Property is in the Opportunity Zone, IF SO CONTACT ME / THIS IS FOR SELLER’S AND BUYER’S.

ARE YOU READY TO SELL OR PURCHASE YOUR INDUSTRIAL / OFFICE OR RETAIL BUILDING OR YOUR  LAND  in Phoenix, Maricopa County and Pinal County, Arizona, please call me. 

Also Call me if you need an estimated value of your Property. Office: 602-445-4113,  Direct : 602-759-1209 , cell: 520-975-5207 or email me walterunger@ccim.net.

Ted Jones gift for the Holidays!

This is the latest installment of the Must Have quarterly report for those in commercial real estate   For me this is the most timely read quarterly information regarding Commercial Real Estate — Dr. Glenn Mueller’s Real Estate Cycles Q3 2018 report.  The report contains valuable for office, apartment, retail, industrial and hotel commercial real estate markets across the country based on almost 300 models tracking occupancy and rental rates.

Dr. Mueller’s analysis of commercial real estate markets covers 54 Metropolitan Statistical Areas’ (MSAs) across five property types.  This report that shows how property types are performing today in a supply and demand framework.  The Cycle Monitor – Real Estate Market Cycles is an excellent resource for checking the pulse rate and blood pressure and relative health across major commercial real estate markets nationwide.

The following table summarizes the latest findings for each of the property types in the study.

 

Dr. Mueller defines four distinct phases in the commercial real estate cycle providing decision points for investment and exit strategies.  Long-term occupancy average is the key determinant of rental growth rates and ultimately property value.  Across the cycle, Dr. Mueller has described rental behavior within each of the phases, using market levels ranging from 1 to 16.   The equilibrium market level is 11, where neither demand nor supply drive rent changes.  This is also the peak occupancy level.

 Recovery   Declining Vacancy, No New Construction

1-3    Negative Rental Growth

3-6    Below Inflation Rental Growth

Expansion   Declining Vacancy, New Construction

6-8   Rents Rise Rapidly Toward New Construction Levels

8-11   High Rent Growth in Tight Market

Hypersupply   Increasing Vacancy, New Construction

11-14   Rent Growth Positive But Declining

 Recession   Increasing Vacancy, More Completions

14-16, then back to 1     Below Inflation, Negative Rent Growth

These are illustrated in the following graphic from Dr Mueller’s report.

 

The following graph (from Dr. Mueller’s Q3 2018 report) shows the current cycle stage from a national perspective.    Apartments, given ongoing new deliveries in the past four years, are the most mature property type across the cycle and are in the Hypersupply Phase with rents still increasing but at a declining rate.  Many of the individual hotel markets in the 54 metros are also in the Hypersupply quadrant.

To download The Cycle Monitor to view the same data as above for 54 MSAs across the five property types, click  https://daniels-pull-universityofdenv.netdna-ssl.com/assets/Cycle-Monitor-18Q3.pdf

Pay attention to each of the property types in the report focusing on cities that have excess supply, and also those with supply trailing demand.

Dr. Glenn Mueller is a professor at the Burns School of Real Estate and Construction Management at the University of Denver.  To learn more about him click https://daniels.du.edu/directory/glenn-mueller/

Thanks again Glenn for this great research.

Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist – Senior Vice President

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CLICK HERE TO SEE IT ALL: Including Phoenix graphs. 

Dr Glenn Mueller’s Q3 2018 Commercial Real Estate Cycles Report

FROM ME:                                                                      

Phoenix Commercial Real Estate and Investment Real Estate: Investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move in owner user Commercial Properties, Investment Properties and land in Phoenix / Maricopa County, Pinal County / Arizona, as the market has a lot of moving parts today. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land  Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands Commercial Properties and Investment Properties. I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net CCIM, Kasten Long Commercial Group.  I also sold  hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of  Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with  brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( www.ccim.com ) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also internationalClick here to find out what is a   CCIM:   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCIM 

PLEASE CALL ME –  Direct : 602-759-1209 , cell: 520-975-5207 or email me walterunger@ccim.net

Please check maps if your Land or Commercial Property is in the Opportunity Zone, IF SO CONTACT ME / THIS IS FOR SELLER’S AND BUYER’S.

“You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur “  ARE YOU READY TO SELL OR PURCHASE YOUR INDUSTRIAL / OFFICE OR RETAIL BUILDING OR YOUR  LAND  in Phoenix, Maricopa County and Pinal County, Arizona, please call me.  Office: 602-445-4113,  Direct : 602-759-1209 , cell: 520-975-5207 or email me walterunger@ccim.net.  ….  VIEW ALL OF WALTERS LISTINGS.  Let me know if you are interested in Apartments: CLICK HERE FOR APARTMENTS FOR SALE     

CLICK HERE:  Arizona Opportunity Zones As We Understand /maps. Interested!!! Please contact me.

Click here: TOWN HALL MEETING DEZEMBER 5, 2018:  Investing in Opportunity Zones

History of Arizona from  900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.

WHY PHOENIX? AMAZING!!!  POPULATION – IN 1950 THERE WERE 331,700 PEOPLE LIVING IN PHOENIX – “NOW 5 MIL”. – “5TH. BIGGEST CITY IN USA”

PHOENIX TOPS US IN POPULATION GROWTH (MORE THAN LA, NYC) AND WHY THAT’S GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY, BUSINESS

Walter Unger CCIM

Senior Associate Broker

Kasten Long Commercial Group

5110 N 40th Street, Suite 110

Phoenix , AZ 85018

Office: 602-445-4112

Direct: 602-759-1209

Cell:    520-975-5207

Fax:       602-865-7461

walterunger@ccim.net

www.Walter-Unger.com

www.KLCommercialGroup.com

View All My Listings

What is a CCIM.

 

8 Reasons You Should Invest in Land

History of Arizona from  900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.

 

WHY PHOENIX? AMAZING!!!  POPULATION IN 1950 – 350 K PEOPLE; “NOW 5 MIL”. – “5TH. BIGGEST CITY IN USA”

PHOENIX TOPS US IN POPULATION GROWTH (MORE THAN LA, NYC) AND WHY THAT’S GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY, BUSINESS

CLICK HERE:  VERY COST EFFECTIVE SPONSORSHIPS AVAILABLE / South Scottsdale: Where the World Comes to Play and Innovative Companies Excel”

 

DOT – LOOP 202 / SOUTH MOUNTAIN FREEWAY / PHOENIX AZ – UNDER CONSTRUCTION

ARIZONA FACTS – YEAR 1848 TO 2013

VIEW ALL OF WALTERS LISTINGS

What is a CCIM.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW MY WEBSITE

  • DEMOGRAPHIC FACTS ABOUT MARICOPA COUNTY:
  • The average age of the population is 34 years old.
  • The health cost index score in this area is 102.1. (100 = national average)
  • Here are some of the distributions of commute times for the area: <15 min (22.7%), 15-29 min (36.8%), 30-44 min (25.1%), 45-59 min (8.6%), >60 min (6.8%).

PHOENIX PROJECTED AS NUMBER ONE US HOUSING MARKET FOR 2017

LIST OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS IN PINAL COUNTY, REVISED 2-14-17

Reasons to Consider me for Commercial Referrals – I have the Knowledge and Experience                                                                                                                         

Click here to View My Listings and Profile

Click here to find out what is a CCIM:

Click here to view my website:

Click her to join my mailing list :      

Walter Unger CCIM –  walterunger@ccim.net   – 1-520-975-5207  –  http://walter-unger.com

2016 Official Arizona Visitors Guide

Visit Arizona

Why Phoenix?  This is a very interesting article, you should read it, amazing, there were only 350 K people living in Phoenix in 1950

Timeline of Phoenix, Arizona history

Phoenix, Arizona

Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013

Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.

Walter Unger CCIM

Senior Associate Broker

Kasten Long Commercial Group

5110 N 40th Street, Suite 110

Phoenix , AZ 85018

Office: 602-445-4112

Direct: 602-759-1209

Cell:    520-975-5207

Fax:       602-865-7461

walterunger@ccim.net

www.Walter-Unger.com

www.KLCommercialGroup.com

View All My Listings

What is a CCIM.

Check out my professional profile and connect with me on LinkedIn.

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 Kasten Long Commercial Group tracks all advertised apartment communities, including those advertised by other brokerages.  The interactive map  shows the location of each community (10+ units) and each location is color coded by the size (number of total units). 

 Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS

I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years.  If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial /  Investment Properties in Arizona,  I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us. 

Please reply by e-mail walterunger@ccim.net or call me on my cell 520-975-5207

www.Walter-Unger.com

 

Are you ready to sell or purchase your Land or Commercial Building in Phoenix, Scottsdale, Maricopa County and Pinal County, Arizona, please call me.

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