RCA: Maturity Wave Won’t Be a Tsunami

_______MAIN 111210911314_10204600086101169_8216146971689668555_o_____Impossible






Only the guy who isn’t rowing has time to rock the boat.

Jean-Paul Sartre



May 22, 2015, Experience GlobeSt.com’s new dedicated city pages, including Austin, Atlanta, San Diego and Boston.

NEW YORK CITY—The wave of 10-year CMBS maturities is set to roll in beginning in 2016, and while it will be a massive wave, it’s not likely to come crashing ashore with tsunami-like force. Not according to Real Capital Analytics, which estimates that just over one-third of 2006- and 2007-vintage loans maturing in ’16 and 2017 will either require additional capital or be worth less than the original loan.

“Our key finding is that the wave of 2016 and 2017 maturities will not lead to massive defaults and foreclosures,” according to RCA’s latest US Capital Trend Report. If anything, the commercial property analytics firms sees an opportunity for those involved in mezzanine lending, “as well as potential for higher sales volume as owners extract remaining value directly.”

The estimate of one-third of maturities coming up short is based on the current Moody’s/RCA Commercial Property Pricing Index. RCA notes its CPPI has been growing at double-digit rates recently,” according to RCA. Reworking the analysis to assume that the market sees a further 10% increase in prices, only 25% of these loans outstanding will face challenges, not one-third.”

By sector, multifamily is in the best shape, a result that RCA doesn’t consider surprising, in view of the fact that strong investor demand for apartments has driven prices 27% above the 2007 levels. “Only 9% of all apartment loans will require any sort of additional capital or face further refinancing challenges,” according to RCA. “By contrast, 45% of all retail loans will face such challenges. The retail price recovery is simply not as far along.”

On a market-by-market basis, the six major metropolitan areas have the fewest problem loans, although it’s not equally smooth sailing among all of them. Of the big six, Chicago has the highest concentration of loans where additional capital will be needed to refinance, with 40.5% of the metro’s ‘16/’17 balance—nearly $2.7 billion worth—falling into this category.

Manhattan, by contrast, faces just under $400 million of such loans, about 2.4% of the total. Within the New York City metro area, Northern New Jersey stands out as a challenged area, with 60% of outstanding loans, or $2.5 billion, requiring additional capital. That total is accompanied by another $72 million of loans that RCA predicts will be a “difficult” refi, or 1.7% of the total. Among the markets in the Northeast, that happens to be the highest percentage falling into the “difficult” category.

It’s a different story in Las Vegas and Phoenix, where problem CMBS loans dwarf the tally of “easy” refis. In Phoenix, 84.3% of CMBS maturing over the next two years will either be “difficult” or require more capital; in Vegas, the total is 90.2%. Other metro areas where two-thirds or more of the loans tilt toward the problematic end of the spectrum include Cincinnati; Cleveland; Detroit; Jacksonville; Kansas City; Memphis; Minneapolis; Stamford, CT; and Westchester County, NY, according to RCA.

Generally speaking, RCA says, the biggest problems are in the tertiary markets, where almost half of all loans will face difficulties. Tertiary areas of the Southeast have $5.9 billion worth of loans where additional capital will be required to refinance. Those in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic have seen stronger price recovery, thanks to being caught up in the tailwinds of the major metros in these regions.




I am actively looking to build relationships with Real Estate Investors and Owner / Users for Phoenix  –  Scottsdale   –  Tucson   –  Maricopa County  – Pima County  –  Pinal County  –  Cochise County  –  Santa Cruz County   –Yavapai County  –  Gila County   –   Arizona ,  USA   

Walter Unger CCIM –  walterunger@ccim.net   – 1-520-975-5207  –  http://walter-unger.com


 It’s a no brainer,  check it out





Timeline of Phoenix, Arizona history




Phoenix, Arizona





Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013


Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix.





View my listings and my profile at:





What is a CCIM?


Join My Mailing List


Investors and owner/users need to really know the market before making a move in commercial investment properties as the market has a lot of moving parts today. What’s going on socio-economically, what’s going on demographically, what’s going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of your commercial properties/investment properties.  Therefore, you need a broker who understands commercial properties.  Please go to my web-site and get all the newsflashes and updates in Commercial Real Estate. 




Check out my professional profile and connect with me on LinkedIn.


Follow me on Facebook:



Follow me on Twitter:



Follow Me on Google+


Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS

I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years.  I am also a commercial land specialist in Phoenix and a Landspecialist in Arizona. If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial /  Investment Properties in Arizona,  I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us. 

Please reply by e-mail walterunger@ccim.net or call me on my cell 520-975-5207 or Office:480-948-5554





Walter Unger CCIM

Associate Broker,  Kasten Long Commercial Group

2821 E. Camelback Rd.

Phoenix, AZ 85016

Cell:      1-520-975-5207  

Fax:      1-602-865-7461 


View my listings and my profile at:



a little about me and my expertise – video


commercial-investment real estate adviser-land specialist




What is a CCIM?


Delivering the New Standard of Excellence in Commercial Real Estate 

  • Commercial Real Estate Scottsdale
  • Commercial Real Estate Phoenix
  • Commercial Real Estate Arizona
  • Commercial Investment Properties Phoenix
  • Commercial Investment Properties Scottsdale
  • Commercial Investment Properties Arizona
  • Land Specialist Arizona
  • Arizona Land Specialist
  • Land Specialist Phoenix
  • Phoenix Land Specialist
  • Land For Sale Phoenix
  • Land for sale Arizona
  • Commercial Properties For Sale Phoenix
  • Commercial Real Estate Sales Phoenix
  • Commercial Properties Phoenix
  • Commercial Properties Arizona
  • Commercial Land Specialist Phoenix
  • Commercial Land Phoenix
  • Multifamily land Phoenix
  • Retail Land Phoenix
  • Industrial Land Phoenix
  • Land Commercial Phoenix
  • Land Retail Phoenix
  • Land Industrial Phoenix
  • Land Multifamily Phoenix
  • Industrial Land for sale Phoenix
  • Land Industrial
  • P
  • Investment Real Estate


Disclaimer of Liability

The information in this blog-newsletter is for general guidance only, and does not constitute the provision of legal advice, tax advice, accounting services, investment advice, or professional consulting of any kind. The information provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, legal, or other competent advisers. Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a professional adviser who has been provided with all pertinent facts relevant to your particular situation. Tax articles in this e-newsletter are not intended to be used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of avoiding accuracy-related penalties that may be imposed on the taxpayer. The information is provided “as is,” with no assurance or guarantee of completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose.