I can’t understand why people are frightened by new ideas. I’m frightened of old ones.
~John Cage (1912-1992)
Attached is the Monthly CMBS Delinquency Report on November remittance data. Despite the lowest month for loan liquidations by balance over the trailing 12-month period, the delinquent unpaid balance fell to $30.92 billion in November, down 3.5% from the prior month and down a notable 25.79% from $41.67 billion a year ago. Liquidations, at $775.6 million across only 70 loans, experienced an average loss severity of 40.58%, compared with the $1.3 billion in liquidations by balance across 83 loans in October, at an average loss severity of 48.87%. The delinquency percentage amounted to 4.03%, down 13 basis points from the previous month and down from 5.64% one year ago. As delinquency has fallen for 29 of the past 34 remittance cycles dating back to January 2012, Morningstar Credit Ratings, LLC believes the declining trend will continue into 2015. That said, Morningstar cautions that expectations regarding the delinquency headline figures should be considered within the context of the upcoming wave of maturing loans.
Morningstar cautions that expectations regarding the delinquency headline figures should be considered within the context of the upcoming wave of maturing loans. Morningstar now estimates some $67.2 billion in performing CMBS will mature throughout 2015 within our active surveillance of loans (down from $70.24 billion a month prior as loans continue to refinance). Most recent figures show that of the $68.6 billion of CMBS loans scheduled to mature over the next 12 months when including all data collected, $3.54 billion, or 5.15%, already is delinquent; $4.92 billion, or 7.17%, is specially serviced, and $16.49 billion, or 24.04%, is on the Morningstar Watchlist. Last month Morningstar added 214 loans with a total unpaid principal balance of $1.91 billion to our Watchlist. In total, nearly 7,900 loans with a UPB approaching $113 billion comprise our Watchlist. Separately, the unpaid balance for specially serviced CMBS increased slightly by $19.69 million, up to $39.35 billion across 2,109 loans.
The November data marked the 12th consecutive month that the overall delinquent unpaid balance was reported below $40 billion, a low point not seen since October 2009, and for the 10th consecutive month, the delinquency rate remained below 5.0%.
Please review the attached report for more information. This report can also be found via Morningstar Credit Ratings’ website, https://ratingagency.morningstar.com under the “Research Reports” section.
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WHETHER YOU LEASE OR OWN NOW IS THE TIME FOR YOU TO EXPAND, UPGRADE OR INVEST IN REAL ESTATE
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