By the work, one knows the workman.
Jean de La Fontaine
CREDIT SUISSE Michael Dahl Homebuilding & Building Products ,Patrick Murray, CFA Anthony Trainor
January Survey of Real Estate Agents: Optimism Building Ahead of Spring on Better Affordability
- Low rates drive better activity, though some seasonality at play: Our Buyer Traffic Index increased to 47 in January from 37 in December, indicating demand was roughly in-line with agents’ expectations. Agents largely attributed the pickup in activity to favorable mortgage rates, aided by recent government housing initiatives (more on page 3). The sequential improvement was modestly better than typical seasonality, as our Traffic Index saw an average 8.1 pt. sequential increase in January from 2011- 2014, likely on a combination of 1) lower rates/cheaper FHA financing, 2) seasonal lows in inventory and 3) still-modest expectations for demand until the true selling season kicks off (improvement seen so far is more in-line with normal trends). Comments on impacts of low inventory were more pronounced but varied, with some noting it was an urgency driver, especially as buyers looked to take advantage of low rates, while others felt transactions suffered as a result of the limited selection. Relative to last month, more agents’ saw lower energy costs lifting confidence. For regions with direct employment exposure to oil, comments continue to vary. We’ve seen additional responses discussing softening buyer sentiment, but at the same time some traffic readings have held up as many are expecting a slowdown but it hasn’t come through noticeably yet.
- More balanced response for traffic vs. expectations, an improvement : In January, 13 of the 40 markets we surveyed saw better than expected traffic (3 in December), 9 markets saw traffic in-line with expectations (6 in December), and 18 saw lower than expected traffic (31 in December). Strong trends continued in the Pacific Northwest. In TX, Austin showed strength, Houston and Dallas met expectations, while San Antonio pulled back. Other notable improvement came in Florida and California (SF, Sacramento and LA met or exceeded expectations, with Inland remaining weak). Traffic in Phoenix remained soft.
- Limited inventory likely supporting home prices: Price Index improved by 7 pts. m/m to 59. While better than recent flat trends, we think the low inventories likely played an outsized role. Of the 40 markets we survey, 24 saw higher prices in January (17 in December), 8 saw flat prices (11 in December) and 8 saw lower prices (12 in December). Weakest price trends were seen in Phoenix, Chicago and Philadelphia, while the strongest price readings were seen in Austin, San Francisco and Denver
pdf.
Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents – January 2015
I am actively looking to build relationships with Real Estate Investors and Owner / Users for Phoenix – Scottsdale – Tucson – Maricopa County – Pima County – Pinal County – Cochise County – Santa Cruz County –Yavapai County – Gila County – Arizona , USA
Walter Unger CCIM – walterunger@ccim.net – 1-520-975-5207 – http://walter-unger.com
1
Timeline of Phoenix, Arizona history
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Phoenix,_Arizona_history
2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix,_Arizona
3
Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013
http://walter-unger.com/?p=9507
Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix.
1-520-975-5207
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Investors and owner/users need to really know the market before making a move in commercial investment properties as the market has a lot of moving parts today. What’s going on socio-economically, what’s going on demographically, what’s going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of your commercial properties/investment properties. Therefore, you need a broker who understands commercial properties. Please go to my web-site and get all the newsflashes and updates in Commercial Real Estate.
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Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS
I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years. I am also a commercial land specialist in Phoenix and a Landspecialist in Arizona. If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial / Investment Properties in Arizona, I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us.
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Walter
Walter Unger CCIM
Associate Broker, West USA Commercial Real Estate Advisers
7077 E. Marilyn Road, Bldg 4, Suite 130
Scottsdale, AZ 85254
Cell: 520-975-5207
Office : 480-948-5554
Fax: (480-658-1172
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a little about me and my expertise – video
commercial-investment real estate adviser-land specialist
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPs3kpKR4nY
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