You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur. FOR OVER 20 YEARS, I HAVE WORKED EXTENSIVELY WITH OWNERS AND BUYERS IN LAND, COMMERCIAL AND INVESTMENT REAL ESTATE IN PHOENIX, TUCSON AND THROUGHOUT ARIZONA. PLEASE LET ME KNOW HOW I CAN HELP YOU. Call me if you want to sell your property and need an estimated value. Phone / Prefer cell: 520-975-5207
Office: 480-948-5554 or email me walterunger@ccim.net. – What is a CCIM.
In Business and in Life you don’t get what you deserve, you get what you Negotiate.
contact me if you want me to get you the value of your property.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY LISTINGS.
Are you ready to sell or purchase your Land or Commercial Building in Phoenix, Scottsdale, Maricopa County and Pinal County, Arizona, please call me?
Walter Unger CCIM – cell: 520-975-5207 – walterunger@ccim.net
JANUARY 11, 2023 Kyle Backer azbigmedia.com
Merriam-Webster’s 2022 word of the year was gaslighting — a form of deceit where someone is manipulated into questioning the validity of their own reasoning — but there was a well-known noun burning in the minds of many last year: inflation. Indeed, December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that prices for all items rose 0.1% in November and were up 7.1% over the prior year. And inflation plays a big role in Arizona’s economic outlook for 2023.
“Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.3% from September to October — a marked step down from the 0.6% reading the previous two months and the average 0.5% over the first nine months of [2022],” explains Christopher Waller, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, during Arizona State University’s (ASU) Economic Forecast Luncheon on Nov. 16, 2022.
SEE IT ALL: https://azbigmedia.com/business/economy/here-is-arizonas-economic-outlook-for-2023/
About AZ Big Media https://azbigmedia.com/
READ ALSO: Here are the Ranking Arizona Top 10 lists for 2022
Even though the apparent slowing of inflation is welcome news, Waller cautions against thinking the U.S. is fully out of this economic briar patch. He notes that other monthly CPI reports since the onset of the pandemic have shown inflation rates dipping, only to rise again a few months later.
“We’ve seen this movie before, so it’s way too early to know if it’s going to have a different ending than what we saw [in 2021] and [summer 2022],” Waller continues. “Inflation remains too high relative to the [Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)]’s target [of 2%].”
Interest rates
In other words, the Fed is unlikely to stop raising interest rates soon, but the intensity of the hikes may soften. On Dec. 14, interest rates rose by 50 basis points (bp), smaller than the four straight 75 bp increases throughout 2022.
Elevated borrowing costs help to cool inflation since it becomes more expensive for individuals to get a mortgage or businesses to take out loans to purchase new equipment. By reducing demand, higher interest rates solve the “too much money chasing too few goods” problem of inflation.
How high will rates go? That depends on economic conditions going forward, Waller says. He likens the Fed’s actions to a plane taking off. The pilot fires the engines to get the plane in the air as quickly as possible, adjusting the rate and angle of ascent along the way. Once cruising altitude is achieved, weather and turbulence may force the pilot higher or lower to keep the journey smooth.
“At a certain point, policy will reach an optimal cruising altitude,” Waller explains. “But we don’t know exactly what that level will be. Maybe new data will point to a shallower climb at a lower cruising altitude, which would suggest stepping down to 25 bp. Or it could be necessary to continue climbing a little longer to a higher final altitude by implementing a sequence of 50 basis point hikes. In the end, the higher we raise the policy rate, the more pressing it is to think about the terminal rate and how much policy should be adjusted to get there.”
SEE IT ALL: https://azbigmedia.com/business/economy/here-is-arizonas-economic-outlook-for-2023/
About AZ Big Media https://azbigmedia.com/
Arizona’s economic outlook
At the ASU Economic Forecast Luncheon, Dennis Hoffman, professor of economics at ASU and director of the L. William Seidman Reasearch Institute, gave his economic analysis of Arizona and Metro Phoenix. He says 2022 was a strong year for the state — despite sputtering towards the end — with 3.8% employment growth and 112,400 jobs created.
Throughout the pandemic, Arizona embraced businesses and had a more open policy, which helped the state recover lost jobs much quicker than the rest of the country. By November 2021, Arizona regained all lost jobs due to the public health crisis whereas the U.S. didn’t reach that point until July 2022.
“Coming into the pandemic, we had higher unemployment rates than the nation on average, and now we’re lower,” Hoffman notes. “Fortunately, in [2022] both the state and U.S. have virtually record low unemployment rates.”
Looking at Arizona’s strongest industries, Hoffman points out healthcare, manufacturing, logistics and science and technology. “Many of us thought it was going to be tough to bring manufacturing back to Arizona,” he says. “I think it’s a testament to all of us in building a workforce and creating a welcoming business climate. Kudos to Sandra Watson and the [Arizona Commerce Authority] on that front.”
Looking forward, Hoffman expects significant deceleration in job growth, with a total of 24,500 new positions forecasted for 2023. He also expects strong population growth to continue, but not as quickly as it did pre-pandemic — though he hedges that there’s been issues with census data that make it difficult to estimate.
“Will we continue to attract young and innovative workers? Will concerns over climate, water, women’s rights, the border crisis — will they matter to them?” Hoffman asks.
Housing in 2023
Housing affordability will continue to be an issue for the Grand Canyon State. With higher interest rates, the purchasing power of a would-be homeowner diminishes greatly. For example, a $400,000 mortgage loan with a 3% rate means a monthly payment of $1,686. If that interest rate doubles to 6%, the payment balloons to $2,398, constituting an additional $8,544 each year.
Not only are interest rates making mortgages more expensive, but the level of residential permits — signifying new multifamily or single-family home construction — has also dipped.
“Housing is considerably less affordable here in Arizona than it was just five years ago,” Hoffman explains. “Just at a time when millennials really want to consume housing, it’s increasingly out of reach for them.”
Hoffman believes the Fed is on the right track but adds that overly tight monetary policy has harsh and lingering effects. In the event of a moderate to severe national recession, he believes the economic pain would extend through mid-2024. Job growth in the state and the Valley would essentially stagnate and be accompanied by major delays in construction and expansion plans, causing the manufacturing boom to slow.
“This is not our baseline; this is a pessimistic scenario of what things could look like,” he concludes. “We frankly have long-term economic advantages in this state. We have a competitive tax structure, affordable labor and relatively new infrastructure. Sustaining these advantages will be the challenge.”
SEE IT ALL: https://azbigmedia.com/business/economy/here-is-arizonas-economic-outlook-for-2023/
About AZ Big Media https://azbigmedia.com/
FROM ME: FOR OVER 20 YEARS, I HAVE WORKED EXTENSIVELY WITH OWNERS AND BUYERS IN LAND, COMMERCIAL AND INVESTMENT REAL ESTATE IN PHOENIX, TUCSON AND THROUGHOUT ARIZONA. Now is the time, if you are thinking of selling or purchasing your Land or Commercial Building in Phoenix, Scottsdale, Maricopa County, Pinal County, Arizona / Office / Retail / Industrial / Multi-family / please call me on my cell 520-975-5207 or e-mail me walterunger@ccim.net. Investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move. The market has a lot of moving parts. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands your needs. I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net, CCIM, CREXi, Catylist, and various other web sites. I also sold hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( www.ccim.com ) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also international
DISCOVER WHAT IS HAPPENING IN ARIZONA
History of Arizona from 900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.
What is a CCIM. In Business and in Life you don’t get what you deserve, you get what you Negotiate.
contact me if you want the me to get you the value of your property.
Walter Unger CCIM – cell: 520-975-5207 – walterunger@ccim.net
Click here to find out what is a CCIM:
CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY LISTINGS.
Are you ready to sell or purchase your Land or Commercial Building in Phoenix, Scottsdale, Maricopa County and Pinal County, Arizona, please call me?
DISCOVER WHAT IS HAPPENING IN ARIZONA
History of Arizona from 900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.
Walter Unger CCIM cell: 520-975-5207 walterunger@ccim.net
Walter Unger CCIM
Associate Broker
West USA Commercial Division
7077 E MARILYN RD.
Suite 200, Building 4.
Scottsdale AZ, 85254
Phone: 480-948-5554
Cell: 520-975-5207
History of Arizona from 900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.
History of Arizona from 900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.
WHY PHOENIX? AMAZING!!! POPULATION IN 1950 – 350 K PEOPLE; “NOW 5 MIL”. – “5TH. BIGGEST CITY IN USA”
- DEMOGRAPHIC FACTS ABOUT MARICOPA COUNTY:
Walter Unger CCIM – walterunger@ccim.net – 1-520-975-5207 – http://walter-unger.com
Timeline of Phoenix, Arizona history
Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013
CLICK HERE: Arizona Opportunity Zones As We Understand /maps. Interested!!! Please contact me.
Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.
Walter Unger CCIM
Associate Broker
West USA Commercial Division
7077 E MARILYN RD.
Suite 200, Building 4.
Scottsdale AZ, 85254
Phone: 480-948-5554
Cell: 520-975-5207
FOR OVER 20 YEARS, I HAVE WORKED EXTENSIVELY WITH OWNERS AND BUYERS IN LAND, COMMERCIAL AND INVESTMENT REAL ESTATE IN PHOENIX, TUCSON AND THROUGHOUT ARIZONA. PLEASE LET ME KNOW HOW I CAN HELP YOU PLEASE CALL ME
CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY LISTINGS.
Also Call me if you need an estimated value of your Property.
Call me if you want to see a map with what is in the Construction Pipeline for Apartments.
Prefer cell: 520-975-5207, or email me walterunger@ccim.net. CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY LISTINGS.
Check out my professional profile and connect with me on LinkedIn.
Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS
I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years. If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial / Investment Properties in Arizona, I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us.
Please reply by e-mail walterunger@ccim.net or call me on my cell 520-975-5207
Reasons to Consider me for Commercial Referrals
Delivering the New Standard of Excellence in Commercial Real Estate
- Commercial Real Estate Scottsdale
- Commercial Real Estate Phoenix
- Commercial Real Estate Arizona
- Commercial Investment Properties Phoenix
- Commercial Investment Properties Scottsdale
- Commercial Investment Properties Arizona
- Land Specialist Arizona
- Arizona Land Specialist
- Land Specialist Phoenix
- Phoenix Land Specialist
- Land For Sale Phoenix
- Land for sale Arizona
- Commercial Properties For Sale Phoenix
- Commercial Real Estate Sales Phoenix
- Commercial Properties Phoenix
- Commercial Properties Arizona
- Commercial Land Specialist Phoenix
- Commercial Land Phoenix
- Multifamily land Phoenix
- Retail Land Phoenix
- Industrial Land Phoenix
- Land Commercial Phoenix
- Land Retail Phoenix
- Land Industrial Phoenix
- Land Multifamily Phoenix
- Industrial Land for sale Phoenix
- Land Industrial
- P
- Investment Real Estate
Disclaimer of Liability
The information in this blog-newsletter is for general guidance only, and does not constitute the provision of legal advice, tax advice, accounting services, investment advice, or professional consulting of any kind. The information provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, legal, or other competent advisers. Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a professional adviser who has been provided with all pertinent facts relevant to your particular situation. Tax articles in this e-newsletter are not intended to be used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of avoiding accuracy-related penalties that may be imposed on the taxpayer. The information is provided “as is,” with no assurance or guarantee of completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose.