You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take. —Wayne Gretzky
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4th QTR 2015
GREATER PHOENIX APARTMENT OWNER’S NEWSLETTER KASTEN LONG COMMERCIAL GROUP:
The Kasten Long Commercial Group has specialized in apartment brokerage in metro Phoenix since 1998. Our agents have brokered more than 1,000 communities with gross sales in excess of 1 billion dollars.
KASTEN LONG COMMERCIAL GROUP
- An independent, local, commercial brokerage – since 1998.
- Experienced professional specialists with a strong “Client First” mandate.
- SERVICES: Apartments and land brokerage – office, retail & industrial brokerage and leasing.
2821 E Camelback Rd, #600, Phoenix, AZ 85016 Jim@KLCommercialGroup.com
602 677 0655
The company provides weekly updates (by e-mail) on apartment sales. If you are not receiving this info. – just let us know. We also have published our quarterly apartment newsletter for sixteen years – past issues and other market data are available on our web site www.KLCommercialGroup.com. WATCH FOR OUR NEW APARTMENT LISTINGS ON THIS SITE AS WELL!!
Vacancy Rates Remain Very Low
Vacancy rates for the 4th quarter for “stabilized” properties with 50 or more units decreased from 5.70% to 5.68%, again setting a 17 year new record (per RealData). As the newly constructed properties are added to the “stabilized” inventory, we expect the rate to inch upwards. Vacancy rates for the 50-99 communities increased from 4.94% to 5.18% while the 100+ properties decreased slightly from 5.76% to 5.72%. Vacancy rates for each sub-market are posted on our web site under Apartments – Market Data.
6,712 New Apt. Units Completed in 2015
Ten projects were completed in Q4 totaling 2,574 units bringing the year-end total to 36 projects totaling 6,712 units. Eight new apartment projects were started in Q4 totaling 1,440 units with a total of 21 projects now under construction representing 6,843 units. There are also 53 additional possible projects in various stages from initial rezoning to final permitting – totaling 14,108 units. The combined total of “under construction” and in the “pipeline” is 20,951 units, down slightly from the 22,218 in Q3. Call us for more information on any of these projects or for a link to our map showing locations of the new and proposed projects.
Rental Rates Continue Climb
For apartment communities with 50-99 units, the average unfurnished rental rate increased 1.8% in Q4, going from $735 in Q3 to $748. For 2015, the rate is up 5.6%. The 50-99 size range typically represents the older, “B” and “C” properties.
The average unfurnished rental rate for the 100+ communities increased slightly, going from $867 in Q3 to $872 per unit in Q4. For 2015, the rate is up 6.5%. Since the values reported represent all age communities with 100+ units and include “A”, “B” and “C” class properties – the overall trend is more important than the actual value. Going forward, the rental rates will be affected by the new construction and their higher rates. As long as vacancy rates remain low, we expect continued rent growth for all existing properties
On a weekly basis via e-mail we offer:
- Recent Apartment sales
- Metro Phoenix News
- All apartments currently being marketed for sale – principals only
New – Interactive Map Available
If interested and if you’re not already on our distribution list – just let us know.
2821 E Camelback Road, Ste. 600
Phoenix, Arizona 85016
Tel: 602 445 4141
Fax: 602 445 4188
The Metro Phoenix Apartment Market (Q4 2015)
In the 4th quarter of 2015, there were a total of 83 individual multifamily transactions with 10 units or more. There were 75 last quarter. A total of 27 transactions had more than 100 units. Of the 83 sales, 27 were purchased with “cash” and 7 had at least one leg that was a “1031 exchange”. Of the 83 total sales, 24 were “Flips” – properties resold within the past four years (see pages 2 and 3 for details). As always, some of the stronger gains were on properties that had been repositioned, but some just enjoyed the continued value increase that we have seen over this time period as rental rates and cash flow have also continued to increase.
Where are we in the Real Estate Cycle?
Being in the sunbelt and in an area of the country that consistently is one of the top locations for population growth, we remain confident that apartment values will stay strong for some time. Over the past five years, metro Phoenix has enjoyed low vacancy rates, strong rental rate growth, reasonable absorption amidst significant new construction. These are all part of an expanding market. Employment and wage growth could be a bit stronger. Metro Phoenix is in the “Expansion” portion of the real estate cycle (Recovery – Expansion – Hypersupply – Recession), which is true for 93% of the major markets in the US. Many of these markets, however, do not have the underlying fundamental to sustain their expansion – as compared to metro Phoenix. As such, as other markets move into the “hypersupply” portion of the cycle, metro Phoenix should be in a stronger positon to remain in the “expansion” portion of the cycle.
After many years of no rate increase by the Feds, in December, the Feds raised the “cost of funds” by a quarter point, with Prime now being 3.25%. For commercial loans, the increase has been minimal. For example, Washington Federal’s mortgage rates only increased by a tenth of a point. The Feds concept may have been to continue to raise rates by a quarter point every three months, but with the world easing interest rates, maybe the Feds will back-off from quarterly raises for a bit. Bottom line, commercial interest rates should remain attractive in 2016. Many banks, however, are already starting to tighten their lending requirements – just a bit. They are fully aware that we have enjoyed a strong run-up in values – so they are starting to exercise some caution. You may see DCR requirements increase slightly going forward.
Is Marketing Your Property “Off-Market” the Best?
For the past several years, owners believed that the best chance of finding a buyer was by a whisper (off-market) campaign. This may have been best for brokers as they would be less likely to pay a co-brokerage outside their company. For buyers not already in our market, however, they would seldom see the opportunities. These are the buyers that might pay a bit more – just to get into the market. The only way for an owner to expose their property to these buyers is by a strong marketing campaign using all platforms available. Exposure should also be as soon as all the information is available for the property and a detailed marketing package is complete. Holding a property for a month to allow the broker’s clients a first look – does not serve the owner. An owner needs full and timely exposure to obtain the best price and buyer.
Kasten Long Commercial Group: Scott Trevey, CCIM (480 205 0862), Linda Fritz-Salazar, Assoc. Broker (602 989 9487), Jim Kasten, CCIM (602 677 0655), Jan Long, CCIM (602 434 9882), Arvle Knight, CCIM (602 885 8000), Walter Unger, CCIM (520 975 5207), John Locke (480 432 7179), Jon Coffen (602 653 3600), De Bowles (480 809 2900) and
Chris Norton (480 559 9775).
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Phoenix Commercial Real Estate and Investment Real Estate: investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move in Commercial Properties or Investment Properties in Phoenix / Tucson / Arizona, as the market has a lot of moving parts today. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land in Phoenix / Tucson / Arizona. Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands Commercial Properties and Investment Properties.
I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net CCIM, Kasten Long Commercial Group. I also sold hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( www.ccim.com ) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also international. Click here to find out what is a CCIM: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCIM
Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.
Kasten Long Commercial Group tracks all advertised apartment communities, including those advertised by other brokerages. The interactive map shows the location of each community (10+ units) and each location is color coded by the size (number of total units).
Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS
I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years. If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial / Investment Properties in Arizona, I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us.
Please reply by e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org or call me on my cell 520-975-5207
Walter Unger CCIM
Senior Associate Broker
Kasten Long Commercial Group
2821 E. Camelback Rd. Suite 600
Phoenix , AZ 85016
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