Economists Predict Steady CRE Growth Ahead Despite Undercurrents of Global Turmoil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A wise man can learn more from a foolish question

than a fool can learn from a wise answer.

Bruce Lee

 

Sobered but Undeterred by Recent Wall Street Woes, ULI Forecasts Three More Years of CRE Growth

By Randyl Drummer October 15, 2014

A consensus survey of economists and analysts convened by the Urban Land Institute and EY Real Estate predicts solid but not spectacutar returns for U.S. real estate investors as moderate economic growth supports a steady strengthening in commercial real estate capital markets and fundamentals over the next three years.

The latest Urban Land Institute/EY Real Estate Consensus Forecast is slightly more optimistic than the previous survey in April regarding commercial property transaction volume and pricing, multifamily fundamentals and returns on institutional CRE properties.

The 43 experts representing 32 of the U.S.’s leading real estate investment, advisory, and research firms surveyed for the forecast last month included CoStar Portfolio Strategy economists Hans Nordby, Walter Page and Shaw Lupton.

“We’re at a point in the cycle where things feel very good,” said Josh Scoville, senior vice president for research with Hines, during a panel discussion on the forecast’s release. “There’s plenty of price and rent growth, but we’ve got to be aware of the risks, because it will change.”

The panel, which included David J. Lynn, CEO and co-founder of Everest High Income Property and Martha Peyton, managing director and head of global real estate strategy for TIAA-CREF, raised concern over more recent economic news, including this week’s equities market selloff, the drop in oil prices and anxiety over global economic growth.

“We’ve just got to be aware and not get too complacent, because things that are good tend to change for the worse,” Hines’ Scoville noted.

Overall, the forecasts for commercial real estate sectors remain positive, despite slightly lower sentiment from last spring on a few key indicators such as CMBS issuance, housing starts and housing price growth. And the U.S. remains a strong haven for cross-border investment, analysts agreed.

“Global investors generally have an optimistic view of real estate market opportunities worldwide,” said Howard Roth, global real estate leader at EY, noting that a broad consensus of the experts predict a continued rise in global transaction volume.

The future for CRE and the economy looks bright despite the current market turmoil in the U.S. and volatile conditions around the world of late, especially in Europe.

“While some see an economic slowdown as a concern, currently, conditions remain positive for real estate investing over the next several years,”
Roth said.

Key findings from the Urban Land Institute/EY Real Estate Consensus Forecast include the following:

  • Commercial property transaction volume will grow, although at a declining rate, and exceed 2006 volume, which was the second highest pre-recession annual volume, by 2016 to $445 billion.
  • CMBS issuance, which increased nearly 80% in 2013, is expected to continue a more moderate annual growth pace, increasing another 43% by 2016.
  • Institutional real estate assets are expected to provide total returns of 11% in 2014, moderating to 8.5% annually by 2016.
  • Commercial property prices are expected to increase by 10% in 2014. Price increases will then moderate to 6% in 2015 and 5% in 2016.
  • Vacancy rates are expected to fall modestly for office, retail and industrial properties and rise slightly for apartments. Hotel occupancy rates are expected to continue improving.
  • Rents are expected to increase for the four major property types in 2014, ranging from a growth rate of 2% for retail up to 4% for industrial. Rent increases for all property types are projected to rise by 3% in 2016, with the exception of office space, which is predicted to increase by 4%.
  • Single-family housing starts are projected to increase to 912,500 units per year by 2016, remaining below the long-term annual average.

READ MORE:

http://www.costar.com/News/Article/Economists-Predict-Steady-CRE-Growth-Ahead-Despite-Undercurrents-of-Global-Turmoil/165060

 

A little about me and my expertise – video

                    

commercial / investment real estate / Arizona land specialist

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPs3kpKR4nY

 

I go to great heights to sell or purchase your land

http://walter-unger.com/?p=10118

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Phoenix,_Arizona_history

3

Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013

http://walter-unger.com/?p=9507

 

4.

Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Investment Properties in Phoenix.

 

 

View my listings and my profile at:

http://www.loopnet.com/profile/14101172900/Walter-Unger-CCIM/Listings/

 

www.Walter-Unger.com

 

What is a CCIM?

 

Join My Mailing List

 

 

Please go to my web-site and get all the newsflashes and updates in Commercial Investment Real Estate in Phoenix and Commercial Investment Properties in Phoenix daily

 

www.walter-unger.com

 

 

Check out my professional profile and connect with me on LinkedIn.

http://lnkd.in/bezpJ8t

 

Follow me on Facebook:

http://www.facebook.com/ungerccim

 

Follow me on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/Walterunger

 

 

Follow Me on Google+

https://plus.google.com/u/0/b/114560883588623379451/

 

Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS

I am a successful Commercial Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years and I worked with banks and their commercial REO properties for 3 years. I am also a commercial landspecialist in Phoenix and a Landspecialist in Arizona.

 

WHETHER YOU LEASE OR OWN

NOW IS THE TIME FOR YOU TO EXPAND, UPGRADE OR INVEST.

 

we are at on the a rise of the cycle in Commercial Real Estate.  so there is only one way and it’s called we are going up and now is the time for you to expand, upgrade or invest in Commercial Properties in Phoenix.  The prices on deals I may get you will not be around forever.

 

If you have any questions about Commercial Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial Investment Properties in Arizona,  I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion in Commercial Properties in Phoenix or Commercial Properties in Arizona with you.Obviously I am also in this to make money, but it could be a win-win situation for all of us. 

 

Please reply by e-mail walterunger@ccim.net or call me on my cell 520-975-5207 or Office:480-948-5554

 

www.Walter-Unger.com

 

Thank You

Walter

Walter Unger CCIM

Associate Broker,  West USA Commercial Real Estate Advisers

7077 E. Marilyn Road, Bldg 4, Suite 130

Scottsdale, AZ 85254

Cell:      520-975-5207   

Office :  480-948-5554

Fax: (480-658-1172  

walterunger@ccim.net

 

View my listings and my profile at:

http://www.loopnet.com/Profile/14101172900/Walter-Unger-CCIM/

 

www.Walter-Unger.com             

 

a little about me and my expertise – video

 

commercial-investment real estate adviser-land specialist

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPs3kpKR4nY

 

What is a CCIM?

 

 

Delivering the New Standard of Excellence in Commercial Real Estate 

 

  • Commercial Real Estate Scottsdale
  • Commercial Real Estate Phoenix
  • Commercial Real Estate Arizona
  • Commercial Investment Properties Phoenix
  • Commercial Investment Properties Scottsdale
  • Commercial Investment Properties Arizona
  • Land Specialist Arizona
  • Arizona Land Specialist
  • Land Specialist Phoenix
  • Phoenix Land Specialist
  • Land For Sale Phoenix
  • Land for sale Arizona
  • Commercial Properties For Sale Phoenix
  • Commercial Real Estate Sales Phoenix
  • Commercial Properties Phoenix
  • Commercial Properties Arizona
  • Commercial Land Specialist Phoenix
  • Commercial Land Phoenix
  • Multifamily land Phoenix
  • Retail Land Phoenix
  • Industrial Land Phoenix
  • Land Commercial Phoenix
  • Land Retail Phoenix
  • Land Industrial Phoenix
  • Land Multifamily Phoenix
  • Industrial Land for sale Phoenix
  • Land Industrial
  • P
  • Investment Real Estate

 

Disclaimer of Liability

The information in this blog-newsletter is for general guidance only, and does not constitute the provision of legal advice, tax advice, accounting services, investment advice, or professional consulting of any kind. The information provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, legal, or other competent advisers. Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a professional adviser who has been provided with all pertinent facts relevant to your particular situation. Tax articles in this e-newsletter are not intended to be used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of avoiding accuracy-related penalties that may be imposed on the taxpayer. The information is provided “as is,” with no assurance or guarantee of completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose.