Density’s Next Frontier: The Suburbs. The continuing low density of inner suburbs is a major cause of the housing crisis—and a potential solution

 

“You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur “ . ARE YOU READY TO SELL OR PURCHASE YOUR LAND OR COMMERCIAL BUILDING IN PHOENIX, SCOTTSDALE, MARICOPA COUNTY AND PINAL COUNTY, ARIZONA,  CLICK HERE  AND PLEASE CALL ME.     520-975-5207 or email me walterunger@ccim.netVIEW ALL OF WALTERS LISTINGS

 

RICHARD FLORIDA  FEB 1, 2018

According to a new study, the continuing low density of inner suburbs is a major cause of the housing crisis—and a potential solution.

In a recent survey, America’s mayors named housing, and housing affordability, as the number-one problem facing their cities. This concern was not only voiced by mayors of expensive, coastal cities, but in diverse communities across the nation. The biggest culprit, according to a large and vocal chorus of urbanists and urban economists, is outmoded and overly restrictive zoning and building codes—not to mention politically powerful NIMBY groups—which hold back new housing construction.

But according to a report released today by urban housing economist Issi Romem of Buildzoom, many urban cores are actually developing and densifying. And lots of housing continues to get built at the suburban periphery. Romem argues that America’s real housing problem—and a big part of the solution to it—lie in closer-in single-family-home neighborhoods that were built up during the great suburban boom of the last century, and that have seen little or no new housing construction since they were initially developed.

The graphic below, from the study, shows the overall picture across America’s metropolitan areas. There are pockets of high-density construction at the urban core and rapid building along the metropolitan periphery, but lagging growth in the dormant suburban interior. As Romem puts it:

In the past, virtually every patch of land in the metropolitan U.S. continually sprouted new housing, but this is no longer the case. In recent decades, residential construction has become increasingly confined to the periphery of American metro areas, while a growing swath of the interior has fallen dormant and produces new homes at a negligible pace. At the same time, a tiny fraction of the land area, scattered in small pockets throughout the metropolitan landscape, is responsible for a growing share of new home production, primarily in large multifamily structures.

What was once the great suburban crabgrass frontier, to use historian Kenneth Jackson’s evocative phrase, providing upward mobility and a path to a better life in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, has essentially been choked off. The proverbial hole-in-the donut has in many ways shifted from the now-reviving urban core to the increasingly dormant, and in many cases distressed, inner-ring suburbs.

The following maps show the evolution of this process across Greater Los Angeles over the past half-century or so. On the maps, light blue represents areas of new single-family construction; orange indicates areas of medium-density developments, of two to 48 units; red shows areas of large multifamily construction, of 50 units or more; and dark blue indicates virtually no construction at all.

The first map shows L.A.’s development at the dawn of the postwar crabgrass frontier, 1940 to 1960. The great majority of the map is filled with light blue, indicating single-family-home construction, with orange areas of small to mid-sized multifamily construction in and around the urban core.

There is a still a great deal of light blue on the second map, which covers the years 1960 to 1980, and shows these same crabgrass suburbs but stretching out farther into the periphery. There are small specks of red near the urban center, and somewhat larger areas of orange stretching out from the core.

But in the 21st century, the pattern changes dramatically. Now the great bulk of the map is dark blue, dominated by vast swaths of no construction. More than half of LA’s built-up areas have hosted no new housing construction this decade. While most urbanists complain about land-use restrictions in the urban core, and urban NIMBYs, there are considerable areas of red and orange in Downtown L.A., Hollywood, and large parts of the Westside and the San Fernando Valley. The areas with no new housing tend to envelop large swaths of older, closer-in suburbs. From this map, restrictive land-use policies and NIMBYism appear to be more a problem of the old crabgrass suburbs than of the inner city.

While L.A. provides a particularly useful illustration of metro America’s dormant suburbs, it is far from unique. Romem’s study shows how this pattern fits virtually all U.S. metros. Over time, a larger and larger share of these metros’ land is taken up by dormant single-family neighborhoods that are failing to add any new housing.

Still, there are important differences between metros, according to the study. Large Sunbelt metros, such as Atlanta, Dallas, and Phoenix, have demonstrated a much greater capacity to expand outward at a low density, while gradually densifying their cores. Lagging Rust Belt metros like Cleveland and Buffalo have seen much less growth out across their suburban periphery, and modest or minimal densification in their urban cores as well. Many expensive coastal cities, with the Bay Area being the prime example, have slowed their outward expansion due to smart-growth policies. Nonetheless, all these different types of metros have large areas made up of dormant suburbs with little or no new construction.

The reality is that most of the housing stock and most of the land area of America’s metros is made up of relatively low-density suburban homes. And a great deal of it is essentially choked off from any future growth, locked in by outmoded and exclusionary land-use regulations. The end result is that most growth today takes place through sprawl.

While urban densification can house some people—mainly affluent and educated ones—the bulk of population and housing growth is shifted farther and farther out to the exurban fringe. That leads to more traffic and longer commutes, and the social and environmental consequences that flow from them, as this old suburban-growth model is stretched beyond its limits.

SEE IT ALL: https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/02/densitys-next-frontier-the-suburbs/552065/

 

ARE YOU READY TO SELL OR PURCHASE YOUR LAND OR COMMERCIAL BUILDING IN PHOENIX, SCOTTSDALE, MARICOPA COUNTY AND PINAL COUNTY, ARIZONA,  CLICK HERE  AND PLEASE CALL ME.     520-975-5207 or email me walterunger@ccim.net

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Timeline of Arizona from  900 BC – 2017   

WHY PHOENIX? AMAZING!!!  POPULATION IN 1950 – 350 K PEOPLE; “NOW 5 MIL”. – “5TH. BIGGEST CITY IN USA”

PHOENIX TOPS US IN POPULATION GROWTH (MORE THAN LA, NYC) AND WHY THAT’S GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY, BUSINESS

FROM ME:                                                                   

Phoenix Commercial Real Estate and Investment Real Estate: Investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move in owner user Commercial Properties, Investment Properties and land in Phoenix / Maricopa County, Pinal County / Arizona, as the market has a lot of moving parts today. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land  Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands Commercial Properties and Investment Properties. I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net CCIM, Kasten Long Commercial Group.  I also sold  hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of  Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with  brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( www.ccim.com ) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also internationalClick here to find out what is a   CCIM:   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCIM 

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ARE YOU READY TO SELL OR PURCHASE YOUR LAND OR COMMERCIAL BUILDING IN PHOENIX, SCOTTSDALE, MARICOPA COUNTY AND PINAL COUNTY, ARIZONA,  CLICK HERE  AND PLEASE CALL ME.     520-975-5207 or email me walterunger@ccim.net

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8 Reasons You Should Invest in Land

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Timeline of Arizona from  900 BC – 2017                                              

WHY PHOENIX? AMAZING!!!  POPULATION IN 1950 – 350 K PEOPLE; “NOW 5 MIL”. – “5TH. BIGGEST CITY IN USA”

PHOENIX TOPS US IN POPULATION GROWTH (MORE THAN LA, NYC) AND WHY THAT’S GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY, BUSINESS

DOT – LOOP 202 / SOUTH MOUNTAIN FREEWAY / PHOENIX AZ – UNDER CONSTRUCTION

ARIZONA FACTS – YEAR 1848 TO 2013

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What is a CCIM.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW MY WEBSITE

  • DEMOGRAPHIC FACTS ABOUT MARICOPA COUNTY:
  • The average age of the population is 34 years old.
  • The health cost index score in this area is 102.1. (100 = national average)
  • Here are some of the distributions of commute times for the area: <15 min (22.7%), 15-29 min (36.8%), 30-44 min (25.1%), 45-59 min (8.6%), >60 min (6.8%).

PHOENIX PROJECTED AS NUMBER ONE US HOUSING MARKET FOR 2017

LIST OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS IN PINAL COUNTY, REVISED 2-14-17

Reasons to Consider me for Commercial Referrals – I have the Knowledge and Experience                                                                                                                         

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Walter Unger CCIM –  walterunger@ccim.net   – 1-520-975-5207  –  http://walter-unger.com

2016 Official Arizona Visitors Guide

Visit Arizona

Why Phoenix?  This is a very interesting article, you should read it, amazing, there were only 350 K people living in Phoenix in 1950

Timeline of Phoenix, Arizona history

Phoenix, Arizona

Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013

Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.

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 Kasten Long Commercial Group tracks all advertised apartment communities, including those advertised by other brokerages.  The interactive map  shows the location of each community (10+ units) and each location is color coded by the size (number of total units). 

 Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS

I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years.  If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial /  Investment Properties in Arizona,  I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us. 

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Walter Unger CCIM

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Kasten Long Commercial Group

5110 N 40th Street, Suite 110

Phoenix , AZ 85018

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