CMBS Delinquencies to Stay Low in 2020—With One Exception

 

 

 

 

“You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur “    I AM YOUR LAND / INDUSTRIAL AND INVESTMENT SPECIALIST / LOOKING FOR OWNERS  Call me if you want to sell your property and  need an estimated value.  Direct : 602-759-1209, Prefer cell: 520-975-5207 or email me walterunger@ccim.net.    A  CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY $ 60 MIL OF LISTINGS .  

 

CMBS delinquencies reached the lowest level since before the financial crisis in December. Expect that trend to hold.

NATIONAL REAL ESTATE INVESTORS NREI Staff | Jan 14, 2020

All signs point to CMBS delinquencies staying at their current low level in the year ahead. The 30+ day delinquency metric had reached a new post-crisis low in December, at 1.45 percent, according to Fitch Ratings—below the last cycle low reached in February 2009. The rate was also 7 basis points below that recorded in November of 2019 and 74 basis points below the rate recorded in December 2018.

Moody’s Delinquency Tracker also recorded the lowest CMBS delinquency rate in a decade in December. The all-property 60+ day delinquency rate tracked by the firm declined to 2.77 percent during the month, according to Moody’s researchers—down 13 basis points from the rate recorded in November. It was also 115 basis points lower compared to December of 2018.

In the same vein, researchers at J.P. Morgan Markets recorded an all-property CMBS delinquency rate of 2.42 percent in December—13 basis points below the level reported in November.

The dynamic of steadily falling CMBS delinquencies is being driven by a combination of continuing loan resolutions, smaller loan maturity volumes and adequate new CMBS issuance, according to Fitch researchers. In 2019, new CMBS issuance volume in the U.S. reached $97.8 billion, according to Commercial Mortgage Alert, an industry newsletter. The figure was 27 percent greater than new CMBS issuance volume recorded for 2018.

In a report published in mid-December, Moody’s researchers noted that “the vast majority of loans with near-term maturities are well-positioned to refinance… Low interest rates, amortization and the abundance of debt and equity capital available will aid in the refinancing of upcoming maturities.”

As a result of all those factors, “Fitch expects the overall delinquency rate to remain generally stable through the end of 2020,” Fitch researchers write. They do, however, caution, that the CMBS delinquencies may rise in the regional mall sector in the months ahead. The two largest new delinquencies recorded during the month of December both involved malls—Hickory Point Mall in Forsyth, Ill. ($27.4 million) and Susquehanna Valley Mall in Selinsgrove, Penn. ($24.9 million).

Fitch data for December shows that delinquency rates fell across all major property sectors compared to November of 2019. Retail properties experienced the most sizeable drop, by 18 basis points to 3.79 percent. The delinquency rate for both office and industrial sectors dropped by 8 basis points, ending up at 1.59 percent for office properties and 0.39 percent for industrial properties. Multifamily properties saw a 2-basis-points drop in delinquencies, to 0.44 percent, and the delinquency rate in the hotel sector went down by 1 basis point, to 1.41 percent. The delinquency rate for mixed-use properties remained the same month-to-month, at 0.83 percent.

According to Moody’s data, declines in delinquencies were experienced across all property categories the firm tracks, with the exception of self-storage, where the delinquency rate has remained at 0 percent in December. The biggest decline was recorded in the industrial sector, where the CMBS delinquency rate dropped by 49 basis points, to 1.5 percent, from November to December of 2019. Retail properties experienced the second biggest drop in delinquencies month-to-month, by 32 basis points to 4.53 percent. That was still, however, the highest delinquency rate of any property sector Moody’s tracks. Multifamily delinquencies declined by 17 basis points to 2.0 percent and office delinquencies were down by a modest 4 percent, at 2.74 percent. Delinquencies in https://www.nreionline.com/cmbs/cmbs-delinquencies-stay-low-2020-one-exception?NL=NREI-21&Issue=NREI-21_20200115_NREI-21_105&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_1&utm_rid=CPG09000005957475&utm_campaign=24916&utm_medium=email&elq2=ff2666e3786c47c4a28462ec21f49ee5 the hotel sector declined by 7 basis points, to 2.08 percent.

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Phoenix Commercial Real Estate and Investment Real Estate: Investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move in owner user Commercial Properties, Investment Properties and land in Phoenix / Maricopa County, Pinal County / Arizona, Properties and Investment Properties. I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net CCIM, Kasten Long Commercial Group.  I also sold  hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of  Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with  brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( www.ccim.com ) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also international as the market has a lot of moving parts today. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land  Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands Commercial en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCIM    I AM YOUR LAND / INDUSTRIAL AND INVESTMENT SPECIALIST / LOOKING FOR OWNERS   CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY $ 60 MIL OF LISTINGS     PLEASE CALL ME –  Direct : 602-759-1209 , cell: 520-975-5207 or email me walterunger@ccim.net

 

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 “You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur “  ARE YOU READY TO SELL OR PURCHASE YOUR INDUSTRIAL / OFFICE OR RETAIL BUILDING OR YOUR  LAND  in Phoenix, Maricopa County and Pinal County, Arizona, please call me.  Office: 602-445-4113,  Direct : 602-759-1209 , cell: 520-975-5207 or email me walterunger@ccim.net.  … CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY LISTINGS.

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CLICK HERE:  Arizona Opportunity Zones As We Understand /maps. Interested!!! Please contact me.

History of Arizona from  900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.

WHY PHOENIX? AMAZING!!!  POPULATION – IN 1950 THERE WERE 331,700 PEOPLE LIVING IN PHOENIX – “NOW 5 MIL”. – “5TH. BIGGEST CITY IN USA”

PHOENIX TOPS US IN POPULATION GROWTH (MORE THAN LA, NYC) AND WHY THAT’S GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY, BUSINESS

 

8 Reasons You Should Invest in Land

History of Arizona from  900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.

 

WHY PHOENIX? AMAZING!!!  POPULATION IN 1950 – 350 K PEOPLE; “NOW 5 MIL”. – “5TH. BIGGEST CITY IN USA”

PHOENIX TOPS US IN POPULATION GROWTH (MORE THAN LA, NYC) AND WHY THAT’S GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY, BUSINESS

DOT – LOOP 202 / SOUTH MOUNTAIN FREEWAY / PHOENIX AZ – UNDER CONSTRUCTION

ARIZONA FACTS – YEAR 1848 TO 2013

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  • DEMOGRAPHIC FACTS ABOUT MARICOPA COUNTY:
  • The average age of the population is 34 years old.
  • The health cost index score in this area is 102.1. (100 = national average)
  • Here are some of the distributions of commute times for the area: <15 min (22.7%), 15-29 min (36.8%), 30-44 min (25.1%), 45-59 min (8.6%), >60 min (6.8%).

PHOENIX PROJECTED AS NUMBER ONE US HOUSING MARKET FOR 2017

LIST OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS IN PINAL COUNTY, REVISED 2-14-17

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2016 Official Arizona Visitors Guide

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Why Phoenix?  This is a very interesting article, you should read it, amazing, there were only 350 K people living in Phoenix in 1950

Timeline of Phoenix, Arizona history

Phoenix, Arizona

Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013

Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.

Walter Unger CCIM

CELL: 520-975-5207

walterunger@ccim.net

CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY LISTINGS

www.Walter-Unger.com

www.KLCommercialGroup.com

What is a CCIM.

 

“You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur “   

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