Arizona economy on track for solid 2017 growth

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“You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur “ 

 

By BOB CHRISTIE,  AP news

PHOENIX (AP) — Stronger than expected growth in the state’s economy this year should continue in 2017 even though single-family housing starts continue to disappoint, an Arizona State University economist told business leaders Monday.

 

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Research professor Lee McPheters also said an increase in the minimum wage from $8.05 an hour to $10 per hour in January isn’t likely to stifle economic growth, despite concerns among the business community that the increase will harm employment levels and profits. That’s because the voter-approved measure raising the minimum wages will cut turnover in low wage jobs and offset higher costs for most businesses, boosting profits, and higher wages will increase overall economic activity.

He pointed to reports on Seattle’s 2015 minimum wage boost as evidence that boosting pay won’t crimp growth.

“We don’t have laboratory experiments in economics — but the numbers are in from the Seattle minimum wage increase,” McPheters said in an interview. “In fact, employment went up over the year of that minimum wage increase and the unemployment rate continues to go down.”

That doesn’t mean there won’t be some businesses that replace workers with technology to cut hours, he said.

McPheters, director of the ASU business school’s JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center, delivered his annual economic forecast at an event for business leaders at the Phoenix Convention Center on Monday. He said the state is on track to create about 76,000 new jobs this year, a 2.9 percent increase and nearly 8,000 more than expected. Unemployment has dropped from 5.9 percent last December to 5.2 percent now, and is expected to drop to 4.8 percent next year.

Despite a big increase in apartment construction, single family homebuilding that has for decades been a key to Arizona economic growth remains well below healthy levels. McPheters expects a 10 percent increase this year to slightly more than 28,000 new homes, a big increase from the height of the housing collapse in 2011 but far below the healthy level of 50,000 to 60,000 new homes per year.

Wildcards remain, however, including what might happen to Arizona’s cross-border trade with Mexico if president-elect Donald Trump modifies free-trade agreements. And repeal of the Affordable Care Act also could affect one of the bright spits of the state’s economy, health care.

“If in fact there were changes that undercut the health care industry broadly speaking that would really slow down a key engine of growth for Arizona,” McPheters said. “We’re No. 5 in the country for the rate of growth for health care jobs.

Anthony Chan, chief economist for JPMorgan Chase, said there remain lots of unknowns about the repeal of President Barack Obama’s health care law.

“If you completely eliminated it and don’t replace it that would have a large negative impact on the U.S. economy, because you’re going to take 10 or 20 million people and just throw them off the rolls,” Chan said. “But I don’t hear any of that message from the president-elect. I hear about repeal and replace.”

Chan also said fears of a trade crackdown Trump campaigned on that could impact Arizona have been tempered by statements from the president-elect’s economic advisers.

“I am concerned, but I don’t really think that I hear that message as loud from a lot of the president-elect’s key economic advisers,” Chan said. “I do hear a signal or a message that they may be using some of these things as negotiation tactics.”

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https://www.apnews.com/c38c0e7df5324494be1d8a0e0939d71c

“You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur “  

 

 

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  • Phoenix Commercial Real Estate and Investment Real Estate: Investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move in owner user Commercial Properties, Investment Properties and land in Phoenix / Maricopa County, Pinal County / Arizona, as the market has a lot of moving parts today. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land  Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands Commercial Properties and Investment Properties. I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net CCIM, Kasten Long Commercial Group.  I also sold  hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of  Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with  brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( www.ccim.com ) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also internationalClick here to find out what is a   CCIM:   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCIM 

 

 

http://walter-unger.com/phoenix-projected-as-number-one-us-housing-market-for-2017/

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Why Phoenix?  This is a very interesting article, you should read it, amazing, there were only 350 K people living in Phoenix in 1950

http://walter-unger.com/why-phoenix-2/

 

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Why Phoenix?  This is a very interesting article, you should read it, amazing, there were only 350 K people living in Phoenix in 1950

http://walter-unger.com/why-phoenix-2/

 

1

Timeline of Phoenix, Arizona history

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Phoenix,_Arizona_history

2

Phoenix, Arizona

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix,_Arizona

 

3

Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013

http://walter-unger.com/?p=9507

Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.

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  1. Interactive Map Of All 10+ Unit Apartment Listings in Metro Phoenix

http://www.easymapmaker.com/map/28cb3b8b3206c377a6f282d980dc7974

 

  1. Interactive  Metro Phoenix Map of New Apartment Construction by Completion Status

http://www.easymapmaker.com/map/955edc17e00b08ce270fb7afb1523cc2

 Kasten Long Commercial Group tracks all advertised apartment communities, including those advertised by other brokerages.  The interactive map  shows the location of each community (10+ units) and each location is color coded by the size (number of total units). 

Click here for Map of Apartments for Sale (10+units)

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 Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS

I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years.  If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial /  Investment Properties in Arizona,  I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us. 

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Walter Unger CCIM

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Kasten Long Commercial Group

5110 N 40th Street, Suite 110

Phoenix , AZ 85018

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