“You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur “
Also Call me if you need an estimated value of your Property. Direct : 602-759-1209, Prefer cell: 520-975-5207, or email me walterunger@ccim.net.
Russ Wiles, Arizona RepublicPublished 6:00 p.m. MT Aug. 5, 2018
The U.S. economy just got its best report card in nearly four years. If growth truly is ratcheting upward on a sustained basis, as the White House suggests, then that could alter the outlook for stocks, bonds, housing and other investments.
The higher-growth scenario becomes more likely after a second-quarter rise in U.S. Gross Domestic Product to 4.1 percent, the best showing since the third quarter of 2014.
Some economists were quick to dampen the enthusiasm — pointing out, for example, that exports for products like soybeans jumped before tariffs took effect.
But others think a more permanent higher-growth outlook is in the cards, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. He cited the potential for four or five years of growth in the range of 3 percent-plus, fueled by last year’s income-tax cuts.
RELATED: Economy grew 4.1 percent in the second quarter, fastest pace in four years
An economic second wind, if it materializes, would come amid what is already one of the longest expansions ever.
Here’s how that might might play out for key investment categories:
Tailwind for stocks
A shift to higher economic growth should be good for stocks, driving up corporate profits and allowing companies to strengthen their balance sheets further, while boosting merger activity and delivering more money to investors as dividends.
Volatility could intensify, and bonds could become more competitive with stocks if yields rose. But overall, it’s hard to envision the stock market crashing if economic growth picks up.
Stock prices have surged during the current expansion, but valuations don’t appear all that lofty. Average price-earnings ratios based on expected forward earnings for the next 12 months, for stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500, stand around 16.
That matches the average of the past 25 years, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.
Some investors are concerned that corporate profits are nearing a peak for the current cycle. But if economic growth picks up, profit momentum likely would continue.
The longest bull market of roughly the past century was 113 months, spanning from October 1990 to March 2000. Stocks have advanced for 112 months in the current cycle (through July), but the gains haven’t been as large, suggesting there’s still room to run.
RELATED: Mistakes you might be making with your stock investments
Higher CD yields
Reflecting the often-sluggish pace of the current expansion, interest rates and inflation have remained subdued. Both have picked up a bit, but nothing like normally would be the case after nine years of economic growth.
The average one-year certificate of deposit has risen to 0.7 percent from around 0.43 percent at the start of the year, while money-market funds have inched up to 0.2 percent from 0.14 percent, said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.
When it comes to your financial future, procrastinating can make things much harder down the line. Here’s how to get confident about your money. USA TODAY
Economic growth at a higher, sustained pace likely would lead to rising yields for ultrasafe instruments, but inflation also could accelerate.
“If inflation rises right alongside interest rates, it becomes a hollow victory for savers as they don’t gain any real ground in terms of buying power,” McBride said.
The rate scenario of the past decade has been dismal for savers. Someone who kept $100,000 in a six-month CD last year would have earned only about $400 in interest, down from roughly $5,200 in 2006, according to JPMorgan.
RELATED: Are certificates of deposit worth it right now?
Bond risks more pronounced
Interest rates haven’t risen by much during the economic expansion, but they have increased enough so far this year to trigger modest losses for bonds and bond mutual funds (rates move inversely to bond prices).
Bonds rarely lose as much ground as stocks during downdrafts, but negative total returns do occur every five years or so.
To minimize the damage, cautious investors should stick with bonds or bond mutual funds with shorter maturities of maybe five years or less. If interest rates keep pushing higher, these investments wouldn’t get hurt as much as bonds with longer maturities.
RELATED: Arizona economic forecast: Another strong year, no recession in sight
Speaking of bonds, worries about an “inverted yield curve” have surfaced.
This term describes the unusual tendency of bonds with short maturities to pay higher yields than longer-maturity bonds. An inverted yield curve — short-term rates above long-term rates — has traditionally signaled that a recession could be imminent.
We’re not there yet, but it bears watching. For example, two-year Treasury notes recently yielded around 2.7 percent compared to 3 percent for 10-year Treasurys.
Conversely, if economic growth picks up, long-term rates likely would follow, making an inverted curve, and imminent recession risk, less likely.
Further housing momentum SEE IT ALL: https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/consumers/2018/08/06/personal-finance-effects-economic-growth-investments/865964002/
FROM ME:
Phoenix Commercial Real Estate and Investment Real Estate: Investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move in owner user Commercial Properties, Investment Properties and land in Phoenix / Maricopa County, Pinal County / Arizona, as the market has a lot of moving parts today. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands Commercial Properties and Investment Properties. I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net CCIM, Kasten Long Commercial Group. I also sold hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( www.ccim.com ) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also internationalClick here to find out what is a CCIM: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCIM
PLEASE CALL ME – Direct : 602-759-1209 , cell: 520-975-5207 or email me walterunger@ccim.net
WEEKLY APARTMENT CLOSING UPDATE THROUGH December 28, 2018, Phoenix Arizona Metro.
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“You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur “ ARE YOU READY TO SELL OR PURCHASE YOUR INDUSTRIAL / OFFICE OR RETAIL BUILDING OR YOUR LAND in Phoenix, Maricopa County and Pinal County, Arizona, please call me. Office: 602-445-4113, Direct : 602-759-1209 , cell: 520-975-5207 or email me walterunger@ccim.net. …. VIEW ALL OF WALTERS LISTINGS. Let me know if you are interested in Apartments: CLICK HERE FOR APARTMENTS FOR SALE
CLICK HERE: Arizona Opportunity Zones As We Understand /maps. Interested!!! Please contact me.
History of Arizona from 900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.
Walter Unger CCIM
Senior Associate Broker
Kasten Long Commercial Group
5110 N 40th Street, Suite 110
Phoenix , AZ 85018
Office: 602-445-4112
Direct: 602-759-1209
Cell: 520-975-5207
Fax: 602-865-7461
8 Reasons You Should Invest in Land
History of Arizona from 900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.
WHY PHOENIX? AMAZING!!! POPULATION IN 1950 – 350 K PEOPLE; “NOW 5 MIL”. – “5TH. BIGGEST CITY IN USA”
DOT – LOOP 202 / SOUTH MOUNTAIN FREEWAY / PHOENIX AZ – UNDER CONSTRUCTION
ARIZONA FACTS – YEAR 1848 TO 2013
- DEMOGRAPHIC FACTS ABOUT MARICOPA COUNTY:
- The average age of the population is 34 years old.
- The health cost index score in this area is 102.1. (100 = national average)
- Here are some of the distributions of commute times for the area: <15 min (22.7%), 15-29 min (36.8%), 30-44 min (25.1%), 45-59 min (8.6%), >60 min (6.8%).
PHOENIX PROJECTED AS NUMBER ONE US HOUSING MARKET FOR 2017
LIST OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS IN PINAL COUNTY, REVISED 2-14-17
Reasons to Consider me for Commercial Referrals – I have the Knowledge and Experience
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Walter Unger CCIM – walterunger@ccim.net – 1-520-975-5207 – http://walter-unger.com
2016 Official Arizona Visitors Guide
Timeline of Phoenix, Arizona history
Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013
Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.
Walter Unger CCIM
Senior Associate Broker
Kasten Long Commercial Group
5110 N 40th Street, Suite 110
Phoenix , AZ 85018
Office: 602-445-4112
Direct: 602-759-1209
Cell: 520-975-5207
Fax: 602-865-7461
Check out my professional profile and connect with me on LinkedIn.
Kasten Long Commercial Group tracks all advertised apartment communities, including those advertised by other brokerages. The interactive map shows the location of each community (10+ units) and each location is color coded by the size (number of total units).
Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS
I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years. If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial / Investment Properties in Arizona, I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us.
Please reply by e-mail walterunger@ccim.net or call me on my cell 520-975-5207
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