“A Tiger doesn’t lose sleep over the opinion of sheep” – Zag
SECTOR IN-DEPTH 7 March 2016
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Highlights 1
Moody’s/RCA CPPI 3
Overview: Sectors constituting the
national all-property index 3
Tiers 1 and 2: National, apartment
and core commercial 4
Tier 3: Core commercial sectors 5
Tier 5: Major and non-major markets 6
Spotlight: Change in LTV since
January 2007 based on CPPI
appreciation 7
Appendix 1: Appreciation Rankings of
Composite Indices 8
Appendix 2: Recovery Profile of CPPI
Indices 9
Appendix 3: Repeat-Sales Transaction
Volume 10
Appendix 4: Schedule of CPPI Report
Release 11
Appendix 5: Index Hierarchy 12
Construction of the CPPI suite 12
Appendix 6: Definitions 13
Moody’s Related Research 14
Highlights
The Moody’s/RCA Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) national all-property composite index decreased 0.3% in January, led by a 0.8% decrease in core commercial prices, as Exhibit 1 shows. Apartment prices rose by 0.7%. Office and industrial prices each declined by more than 1% in January, driving the first monthly CPPI decline in six years and signaling a notable shift in investor sentiment.
The Moody’s/RCA CPPI1 measures price changes in US commercial real estate based on completed sales of the same commercial properties over time, or the “repeat-sales” methodology.2 Below are the highlights of this month’s report, which we base on transaction data through the end of January 2016. Exhibit 2 shows these price changes by sector and market type. » The national all-property composite index decreased by 0.3% in January. Core commercial prices declined by 0.8%, while apartment prices gained 0.7%. » The price slippage in January follows flat performance in December. These results indicate that price growth has paused six years into the post-crisis recovery. This is a significant milestone that signals that a shift in sentiment among commercial property investors is underway. » Industrial and office prices each declined by more than 1% in January. Retail was the only core commercial sector to show a gain in January, up 1.1%. » Apartment price growth continued, up 0.7% over the last month and up by 2.7% over the last three months. » Price growth in major markets has begun to decelerate. Major market prices declined by 0.6% in January and have gained only 0.1% over the past three months. » In the spotlight we illustrate the CPPI-adjusted change in LTV ratios since January 2007, near the peak of the pre-crisis lending surge. On average, suburban office LTV’s are higher and retail and industrial LTVs are slightly lower. Apartment and central business district (CBD) offices prices had significant appreciation since January 2007 and show significant deleveraging based on current prices.
SEE IT ALL:
FROM ME:
Phoenix Commercial Real Estate and Investment Real Estate: investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move in Commercial Properties or Investment Properties in Phoenix / Tucson / Arizona, as the market has a lot of moving parts today. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land in Phoenix / Tucson / Arizona. Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands Commercial Properties and Investment Properties.
I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net CCIM, Kasten Long Commercial Group. I also sold hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( www.ccim.com ) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also international. Click here to find out what is a CCIM: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCIM
1
http://walter-unger.com/?p=15472
2
Click here to find Reasons to Consider me for Commercial Referrals
http://walter-unger.com/?p=15010
3
Click here to View My Listings and Profile
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4
Click here to find out what is a CCIM:
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5
Click here to view my website:
6
Interactive Map Of All 10+ Unit Apartment Listings in Metro Phoenix
http://www.easymapmaker.com/map/28cb3b8b3206c377a6f282d980dc7974
7
Interactive Metro Phoenix Map of New Apartment Construction by Completion Status
http://www.easymapmaker.com/map/955edc17e00b08ce270fb7afb1523cc2
8
4rd QTR 2015 GREATER PHOENIX APARTMENT OWNER’S NEWSLETTER Kasten Long Commercial Group.
9
Click her to join my mailing list :
Walter Unger CCIM – walterunger@ccim.net – 1-520-975-5207 – http://walter-unger.com
2016 Official Arizona Visitors Guide
http://walter-unger.com/?p=13391
1
Timeline of Phoenix, Arizona history
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Phoenix,_Arizona_history
2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix,_Arizona
3
Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013
http://walter-unger.com/?p=9507
Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.
walterunger@ccim.net 1-520-975-5207
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Kasten Long Commercial Group tracks all advertised apartment communities, including those advertised by other brokerages. The interactive map shows the location of each community (10+ units) and each location is color coded by the size (number of total units).
Click here for Map of Apartments for Sale (10+units)
Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS
I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years. If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial / Investment Properties in Arizona, I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us.
Please reply by e-mail walterunger@ccim.net or call me on my cell 520-975-5207
Walter Unger CCIM
Senior Associate Broker
Kasten Long Commercial Group
2821 E. Camelback Rd. Suite 600
Phoenix , AZ 85016
Direct: 520-975-5207
Fax: 602-865-7461
Reasons to Consider me for Commercial Referrals
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