I can’t understand why people are frightened by new ideas. I’m frightened of old ones.
~John Cage (1912-1992)
Attached is the Monthly CMBS Delinquency Report on November remittance data. Despite the lowest month for loan liquidations by balance over the trailing 12-month period, the delinquent unpaid balance fell to $30.92 billion in November, down 3.5% from the prior month and down a notable 25.79% from $41.67 billion a year ago. Liquidations, at $775.6 million across only 70 loans, experienced an average loss severity of 40.58%, compared with the $1.3 billion in liquidations by balance across 83 loans in October, at an average loss severity of 48.87%. The delinquency percentage amounted to 4.03%, down 13 basis points from the previous month and down from 5.64% one year ago. As delinquency has fallen for 29 of the past 34 remittance cycles dating back to January 2012, Morningstar Credit Ratings, LLC believes the declining trend will continue into 2015. That said, Morningstar cautions that expectations regarding the delinquency headline figures should be considered within the context of the upcoming wave of maturing loans.
Morningstar cautions that expectations regarding the delinquency headline figures should be considered within the context of the upcoming wave of maturing loans. Morningstar now estimates some $67.2 billion in performing CMBS will mature throughout 2015 within our active surveillance of loans (down from $70.24 billion a month prior as loans continue to refinance). Most recent figures show that of the $68.6 billion of CMBS loans scheduled to mature over the next 12 months when including all data collected, $3.54 billion, or 5.15%, already is delinquent; $4.92 billion, or 7.17%, is specially serviced, and $16.49 billion, or 24.04%, is on the Morningstar Watchlist. Last month Morningstar added 214 loans with a total unpaid principal balance of $1.91 billion to our Watchlist. In total, nearly 7,900 loans with a UPB approaching $113 billion comprise our Watchlist. Separately, the unpaid balance for specially serviced CMBS increased slightly by $19.69 million, up to $39.35 billion across 2,109 loans.
The November data marked the 12th consecutive month that the overall delinquent unpaid balance was reported below $40 billion, a low point not seen since October 2009, and for the 10th consecutive month, the delinquency rate remained below 5.0%.
Please review the attached report for more information. This report can also be found via Morningstar Credit Ratings’ website, https://ratingagency.morningstar.com under the “Research Reports” section.
We welcome and encourage your feedback and suggestions. Please feel free to contact us either by phone (800-299-1665) or email (ratingagency@morningstar.com).
Pdf.
CMBS Morningstar CMBS Surveillance Monthly Delinquency Report 12-18-14
Morningstar Credit Ratings, LLC
I am actively looking to build relationships with Real Estate Investors and Owner / Users for Phoenix – Scottsdale – Tucson – Maricopa County – Pima County – Pinal County – Cochise County – Santa Cruz County –Yavapai County – Gila County – Arizona , USA
Walter Unger CCIM – walterunger@ccim.net – 1-520-975-5207 – http://walter-unger.com
1
Timeline of Phoenix, Arizona history
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Phoenix,_Arizona_history
2
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3
Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013
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4.
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I am a successful Commercial Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years and I worked with banks and their commercial REO properties for 3 years. I am also a commercial landspecialist in Phoenix and a Landspecialist in Arizona.
WHETHER YOU LEASE OR OWN NOW IS THE TIME FOR YOU TO EXPAND, UPGRADE OR INVEST IN REAL ESTATE
we are at on the a rise of the cycle in Commercial Real Estate. so there is only one way and it’s called we are going up and now is the time for you to expand, upgrade or invest in Commercial Properties in Phoenix. The prices on deals I may get you will not be around forever.
If you have any questions about Commercial Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial Investment Properties in Arizona, I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion in Commercial Properties in Phoenix or Commercial Properties in Arizona with you.Obviously I am also in this to make money, but it could be a win-win situation for all of us.
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Walter
Walter Unger CCIM
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