Monthly Delinquency Report – June 2014 (May 2014 Remittance)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

“I’ve failed over and over again in my life, and that is why I succeed.”

Michael Jordan

 

 

 

 

MORNINGSTAR – CMBS Research –

Executive Summary

With the May remittance, the delinquent unpaid balance for commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, continued its ongoing

decline to a trailing 12-month low of $33.98 billion (4.55%), down from

$34.42 billion (4.59%) a month prior. This marks the 12th straight month of

decline and the sixth consecutive month that the overall delinquent unpaid

balance has been reported below $40 billion, a low point not seen since

October 2009 (at $32.55 billion). Correspondingly, the delinquency rate itself

had not fallen below 5.0% since November 2009 (at 4.71%) and now has

been reported below this threshold for four consecutive months. Meanwhile,

a monthly decline has now been reported in 24 of the past 29 remittance

cycles since January 2012. While roughly $1.36 billion in newly delinquent

loans were reported with the May 2014 remittance, a slightly higher $1.78

billion in loan resolutions (including loan payoffs, liquidations, and returns to performing status) were also reported, resulting in a net decrease to the delinquent unpaid balance. This includes a direct impact from high monthly liquidations by balance in May 2014 for the

fourth consecutive month, totaling $1.28 billion across 83 loans, at an average loss severity of 44.3%. Otherwise, the May 2014 delinquency figure remains down substantially year-over-year, from a high of $49.65 billion (6.71%) as of May 2013, while a net decrease was noted in three of the five delinquency categories through May 2014 (the 30-day and foreclosure categories each

reflected an increase). In aggregate, the distressed categories of 90-day, foreclosure and REO decreased for the 10th consecutive month, down by $197.02 million in May. The two most distressed categories of foreclosure and REO, however, combined to increase by $54.06 million in May (up to $23.68 billion). Despite such increase, they have actually decreased by $7.10 billion year-over-year (down by 23.07% from $30.78 billion in May 2013).

 

Forecast

The delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS and corresponding percentage continue to be impacted by the size and amount of loan

liquidations, modifications, extensions and resolutions reported on a monthly basis and are clearly on a road to recovery. These items,

along with an active pipeline for new issuance CMBS, should lead to a further decline in delinquency levels in 2014. Based upon an updated trailing 12-month analysis of the movement in delinquent unpaid balance from loan workouts and liquidations, as well as the

total outstanding CMBS universe of deals under review (which continues to grow more rapidly from new issuance versus legacy deal pay down), we now project that the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS may decrease as low as $20 billion to $25 billion by year-end,

with a corresponding delinquency rate well below 4%. Outside of any major macroeconomic events, the numerator / denominator effect on this forecast hinges on multiple parts, including continued monthly liquidations at the current rate and size (e.g., repeated mass liquidations of distressed debt and timing of loss realization similar to the recent the CWCapital auction), further issuance of new CMBS according to market expectations (near $100 billion for 2014), and the ongoing maturity payoff rate remaining fairly constant through the end of 2014. On the other hand, a pending 2015 maturity bubble should not be ignored in any long-term evaluation.

 

 

Pdf.

Monthly Delinquency Report – June 2014 (May 2014 Remittance)

 

 

 

 

A little about me and my expertise – video

                    

commercial / investment real estate / Arizona land specialist

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPs3kpKR4nY

 

I go to great heights to sell or purchase your land

http://walter-unger.com/?p=10118

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Phoenix,_Arizona_history

3

Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013

http://walter-unger.com/?p=9507

 

4.

Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Investment Properties in Phoenix.

 

 

View my listings and my profile at:

http://www.loopnet.com/profile/14101172900/Walter-Unger-CCIM/Listings/

 

www.Walter-Unger.com

 

What is a CCIM?

 

Join My Mailing List

 

 

Please go to my web-site and get all the newsflashes and updates in Commercial Investment Real Estate in Phoenix and Commercial Investment Properties in Phoenix daily

 

www.walter-unger.com

 

 

Check out my professional profile and connect with me on LinkedIn.

http://lnkd.in/bezpJ8t

 

Follow me on Facebook:

http://www.facebook.com/ungerccim

 

Follow me on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/Walterunger

 

 

Follow Me on Google+

https://plus.google.com/u/0/b/114560883588623379451/

 

Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS

I am a successful Commercial Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years and I worked with banks and their commercial REO properties for 3 years. I am also a commercial landspecialist in Phoenix and a Landspecialist in Arizona.

 

WHETHER YOU LEASE OR OWN

NOW IS THE TIME FOR YOU TO EXPAND, UPGRADE OR INVEST.

 

we are at on the a rise of the cycle in Commercial Real Estate.  so there is only one way and it’s called we are going up and now is the time for you to expand, upgrade or invest in Commercial Properties in Phoenix.  The prices on deals I may get you will not be around forever.

 

If you have any questions about Commercial Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial Investment Properties in Arizona,  I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion in Commercial Properties in Phoenix or Commercial Properties in Arizona with you.Obviously I am also in this to make money, but it could be a win-win situation for all of us. 

 

Please reply by e-mail walterunger@ccim.net or call me on my cell 520-975-5207 or Office:480-948-5554

 

www.Walter-Unger.com

 

Thank You

Walter

Walter Unger CCIM

Associate Broker,  West USA Commercial Real Estate Advisers

7077 E. Marilyn Road, Bldg 4, Suite 130

Scottsdale, AZ 85254

Cell:      520-975-5207   

Office :  480-948-5554

Fax: (480-658-1172  

walterunger@ccim.net

 

View my listings and my profile at:

http://www.loopnet.com/Profile/14101172900/Walter-Unger-CCIM/

 

www.Walter-Unger.com             

 

a little about me and my expertise – video

 

commercial-investment real estate adviser-land specialist

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPs3kpKR4nY

 

What is a CCIM?

 

 

Delivering the New Standard of Excellence in Commercial Real Estate 

 

  • Commercial Real Estate Scottsdale
  • Commercial Real Estate Phoenix
  • Commercial Real Estate Arizona
  • Commercial Investment Properties Phoenix
  • Commercial Investment Properties Scottsdale
  • Commercial Investment Properties Arizona
  • Land Specialist Arizona
  • Arizona Land Specialist
  • Land Specialist Phoenix
  • Phoenix Land Specialist
  • Land For Sale Phoenix
  • Land for sale Arizona
  • Commercial Properties For Sale Phoenix
  • Commercial Real Estate Sales Phoenix
  • Commercial Properties Phoenix
  • Commercial Properties Arizona
  • Commercial Land Specialist Phoenix
  • Commercial Land Phoenix
  • Multifamily land Phoenix
  • Retail Land Phoenix
  • Industrial Land Phoenix
  • Land Commercial Phoenix
  • Land Retail Phoenix
  • Land Industrial Phoenix
  • Land Multifamily Phoenix
  • Industrial Land for sale Phoenix
  • Land Industrial
  • P
  • Investment Real Estate

 

Disclaimer of Liability

The information in this blog-newsletter is for general guidance only, and does not constitute the provision of legal advice, tax advice, accounting services, investment advice, or professional consulting of any kind. The information provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, legal, or other competent advisers. Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a professional adviser who has been provided with all pertinent facts relevant to your particular situation. Tax articles in this e-newsletter are not intended to be used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of avoiding accuracy-related penalties that may be imposed on the taxpayer. The information is provided “as is,” with no assurance or guarantee of completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose.