Full Speed Ahead – Multifamily sector will advance along its long runway.

“You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur “ . ARE YOU READY TO SELL OR PURCHASE YOUR LAND OR COMMERCIAL BUILDING IN PHOENIX, SCOTTSDALE, MARICOPA COUNTY AND PINAL COUNTY, ARIZONA,  CLICK HERE  AND PLEASE CALL ME.     520-975-5207 or email me walterunger@ccim.net.  .    VIEW ALL OF WALTERS LISTINGS.      Let me know if you are interested in Apartments: CLICK HERE FOR APARTMENTS FOR SALE

By Blake Okland | Mar.Apr.18

Despite rumors to the contrary about multifamily’s growth, 2018 will be a seller’s market.

As long as off-market portfolio transactions and recapitalizations continue – keeping the amount of available deals and cap rates down – so will aggressive bidding. Even with transaction volumes at historic highs, several factors should fuel this demand cycle.

Absorption: Multifamily is expected to have strong absorption through 2019 as fewer apartments come to market.

Secondary markets: As secondary cities increasingly attract capital, expect more cap rate compression in those markets compared to large metros.

Tech hubs: After outpacing the national average by double digits since 2012, technology-driven employment hubs will maintain the strongest rental growth.

Cap rates: Each of these factors may further suppress broadly marketed activity and likely trickle into secondary and tertiary markets that have attracted capital as investors seek yield.

Ironically, it’s the prospect of these reliable dynamics that will shake up other aspects of multifamily next year.

Investor Shifts

Every capital food group wants exposure in a strong sector. Last year, about 66 percent of multifamily investors were private buyers, and the remaining 34 percent were institutional. Expect greater diversification during 2018 and new equity in the space, including more international capital.

International sources invested $11.3 billion in U.S. multifamily during the last year, according to ARA Newmark research. Expect heightened activity as high net-worth families and sovereign wealth funds shift their attention from trophy offices and hotels.

However, direct funding may be less common. International capital has become increasingly fond of identifying U.S. sponsors for multifamily investments.

Market Variations

Which markets will be hot in 2018? Look for secondary markets to continue to outpace primary markets, especially in the Southeast and Southwest. Three primary factors will affirm the frontrunners.

Extending 2017 success: Atlanta and Dallas are considered global gateways and have economic tailwinds helping – tax-friendly policies and robust job growth. Inventory in these cities is growing at twice the pace of the national average.

Chasing yield: Orlando, Fla., and Houston will maintain attractive yields, from the 5.1 to 5.5 percent range. Orlando  finished 2017 with record sales volume. Houston continues to present a compelling story, as oil markets stabilize and the impact of Hurricane Harvey pulled significant single and multifamily offline, substantially driving up marketwide occupancy and providing new support for rent growth.

Surging cities: Seattle, Denver, and Raleigh-Durham, N.C., forecast rapid growth. However, institutional capital could give the edge to Salt Lake City’s strong tech base or to San Diego’s transition with new mid-rise and high-rise development.

Sector Evolution

Though conventional multifamily outshines sector interest, 2018 will put the spotlight on three niches.

Student housing: Since proving itself recession-resilient, this sector is becoming a favorite among institutional buyers and international investors, delivering new equity to multifamily. More than 33 percent of 2017 deals tapped international capital, up from 20 percent in 2016.

Seniors: Active adult activity will thrive. Cap rates should remain stable as more investors – global, private equity, and public and private REITs – drive development and acquisition in markets with high barriers to entry.

Affordable housing: Affordable has become a buzzword among niche players and institutions since Starwood’s grand entrance with the purchase of a $500 million portfolio. Expect a steady flow of deals as properties reach the 15-year investment horizons. While yields may compress, they’ll stay stronger than conventional growth without relying on substantial hikes in rent.

Debt Market Movement

Debt capital for well-positioned assets will remain plentiful despite a pullback in the CMBS market. Meanwhile, government-sponsored entities, banks, and life insurance companies are expanding their outstanding debt.

Lending across major metros will continue to benefit from regional banks expanding their real estate balance sheets, while larger national banks remain more risk-averse.

Strong Forecast

Overall, employment growth remains positive nationwide, strengthening demand for multifamily and bringing welcome change across the industry. These advances encompass greater diversification of investors, an influx of new equity, shifts among lending sources, and sector evolutions. Even disruptions from short-term rentals should start to ease up and work in concert with apartment owners. Through 2018 and beyond, expect multifamily to make the most of these fluctuations.

Blake Okland

Blake Okland is vice chairman and head of U.S. Multifamily  at ARA, a Newmark company, in Charlotte, N.C. Contact him at okland@areanewmark.com.

SEE IT ALL: https://www.ccim.com/cire-magazine/articles/2018/03/full-speed-ahead/

ARE YOU READY TO SELL OR PURCHASE YOUR LAND OR COMMERCIAL BUILDING IN PHOENIX, SCOTTSDALE, MARICOPA COUNTY AND PINAL COUNTY, ARIZONA,  CLICK HERE  AND PLEASE CALL ME.     520-975-5207 or email me walterunger@ccim.net

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KASTEN LONG Commercial Group and AMA Events, Resources & Education For Apartment Owners

Timeline of Arizona from  900 BC – 2017     

WHY PHOENIX? AMAZING!!!  POPULATION IN 1950 – 350 K PEOPLE; “NOW 5 MIL”. – “5TH. BIGGEST CITY IN USA”

PHOENIX TOPS US IN POPULATION GROWTH (MORE THAN LA, NYC) AND WHY THAT’S GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY, BUSINESS

FROM ME:                                                                      

Phoenix Commercial Real Estate and Investment Real Estate: Investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move in owner user Commercial Properties, Investment Properties and land in Phoenix / Maricopa County, Pinal County / Arizona, as the market has a lot of moving parts today. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land  Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands Commercial Properties and Investment Properties. I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net CCIM, Kasten Long Commercial Group.  I also sold  hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of  Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with  brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( www.ccim.com ) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also internationalClick here to find out what is a   CCIM:   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCIM 

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ARE YOU READY TO SELL OR PURCHASE YOUR LAND OR COMMERCIAL BUILDING IN PHOENIX, SCOTTSDALE, MARICOPA COUNTY AND PINAL COUNTY, ARIZONA,  CLICK HERE  AND PLEASE CALL ME.     520-975-5207 or email me walterunger@ccim.net

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WEEKLY LAND CLOSING UPDATE / THROUGH March 9, 2018 / Phoenix Arizona Metro, Maricopa County, Pinal County.

WEEKLY LAND CLOSING UPDATE / THROUGH March 2, 2018 / Phoenix Arizona Metro, Maricopa County, Pinal County.

WEEKLY LAND CLOSING UPDATE / THROUGH February 23, 2018 / Phoenix Arizona Metro, Maricopa County, Pinal County.

WEEKLY LAND CLOSING UPDATE / THROUGH February 16, 2018 / Phoenix Arizona Metro, Maricopa County, Pinal County.

WEEKLY LAND CLOSING UPDATE / THROUGH February 9, 2018 / Phoenix Arizona Metro, Maricopa County, Pinal County.

WEEKLY LAND CLOSING UPDATE / THROUGH February 2, 2018 / Phoenix Arizona Metro, Maricopa County, Pinal County.

WEEKLY APARTMENT CLOSING UPDATE THROUGH March 9, 2018,  Phoenix Arizona Metro.

WEEKLY APARTMENT CLOSING UPDATE THROUGH March 2, 2018,  Phoenix Arizona Metro.

WEEKLY APARTMENT CLOSING UPDATE THROUGH February 23, 2018,  Phoenix Arizona Metro.

WEEKLY APARTMENT CLOSING UPDATE THROUGH February 16, 2018,  Phoenix Arizona Metro.

WEEKLY APARTMENT CLOSING UPDATE THROUGH February 9, 2018/  Phoenix Arizona Metro.

WEEKLY APARTMENT CLOSING UPDATE THROUGH February 2, 2018/  Phoenix Arizona Metro.

WEEKLY APARTMENT CLOSING UPDATE THROUGH January 25, 2018/  Phoenix Arizona Metro.

8 Reasons You Should Invest in Land

Timeline of Arizona from  900 BC – 2017                                                

WHY PHOENIX? AMAZING!!!  POPULATION IN 1950 – 350 K PEOPLE; “NOW 5 MIL”. – “5TH. BIGGEST CITY IN USA”

PHOENIX TOPS US IN POPULATION GROWTH (MORE THAN LA, NYC) AND WHY THAT’S GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY, BUSINESS

DOT – LOOP 202 / SOUTH MOUNTAIN FREEWAY / PHOENIX AZ – UNDER CONSTRUCTION

ARIZONA FACTS – YEAR 1848 TO 2013

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What is a CCIM.

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  • DEMOGRAPHIC FACTS ABOUT MARICOPA COUNTY:
  • The average age of the population is 34 years old.
  • The health cost index score in this area is 102.1. (100 = national average)
  • Here are some of the distributions of commute times for the area: <15 min (22.7%), 15-29 min (36.8%), 30-44 min (25.1%), 45-59 min (8.6%), >60 min (6.8%).

PHOENIX PROJECTED AS NUMBER ONE US HOUSING MARKET FOR 2017

LIST OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS IN PINAL COUNTY, REVISED 2-14-17

Reasons to Consider me for Commercial Referrals – I have the Knowledge and Experience                                                                                                                         

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2016 Official Arizona Visitors Guide

Visit Arizona

Why Phoenix?  This is a very interesting article, you should read it, amazing, there were only 350 K people living in Phoenix in 1950

Timeline of Phoenix, Arizona history

Phoenix, Arizona

Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013

Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.

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 Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS

I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years.  If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial /  Investment Properties in Arizona,  I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us. 

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Walter Unger CCIM

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Kasten Long Commercial Group

5110 N 40th Street, Suite 110

Phoenix , AZ 85018

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