Every generation laughs at the old fashions, but follows religiously the new.
~Henry David Thoreau (1817-1862)
The Monday Morning Quarterback
A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 19th, 2013
We are always striving to make the Monday Morning Quarterback more meaningful to you, our
readers. This week, we are changing the format somewhat. Based on your feedback, we will
still have an Arizona and a National snapshot, but this week we will keep things more concise by
only going into depth on one significant indicator. As always, we appreciate you as an audience
and love receiving your opinions to improve our overview of economic news.
• As of the second quarter of 2013, housing affordability in Greater Phoenix remained very
high. According to the National Association of Homebuilders, 76.2% of the families in
Greater Phoenix can afford the median priced home.
• July employment data for Arizona and its political subdivisions indicate that the state
continues to grow albeit modestly relative to what would be considered normal for this
point in the cycle. Arizona added 67,600 jobs (total nonfarm payroll employment) over
the past year. Greater Phoenix added 53,100 jobs or 78.6% of the state total. The Tucson
MSA added 8,300 jobs over the past year or 12.3% of the state total. This translates into
growth rates over the past year (July 13/July 12) of 2.8%, 3.1% and 2.4% respectively for
the state, Greater Phoenix and Greater Tucson.
• Both Arizona and Maricopa retail sales had a good month in June. For the State, retail
sales were up 8.8% over a year ago, and Maricopa County retail sales were up 10.1%.
Autos and light trucks continue to lead the way.
• The U. S. Blue Chip consensus forecast for August now indicates that real GDP will
grow a modest 1.5% year over year in 2013. This is 0.3% less than last month’s forecast.
That would mark the smallest increase since 2009. The consensus forecast for 2014 in
now 2.6%. Tax changes and sequestration are taking their toll. June data for inventories
and sales in manufacturing and trade now show that the inventories/sales ratio is 1.29,
down just a hair from a year ago and the sale as last month. This is important because it
indicates that inventories are not piling up at either the manufacturers or retailers level.
• According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment declined in August
compared to July. The index was reported at 80.0 compared to 85.1 in July. Industrial
production edged up slightly and now stands up 1.4% from a year ago. But, capacity
utilization edged down 0.1% in July and now stands 0.3% below year earlier levels. This
is good news because it indicates that inflationary pressures from lack of capacity won’t 2
occur at any time soon. But, it’s bad news in that there won’t be a lot of pressure on
business to build new plant.
• Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 0.9% annual rate during the
second quarter of 2013. However, productivity is no higher today than it was two years
ago. Since productivity is a proxy for growth in the standard of living, it is certainly not
great news. It means that output per worker hour has not grown. Unit labor costs over
that same period were up 2.0%.
• Housing affordability slipped several notches as recovering markets witnessed significant
firming of home prices. Yet, the index at 69.3 compared to 74.9 a year ago is still very
strong by historic standards. In that regard, both building permits and starts remain
While the rate of growth in nonfarm employment is anemic by what Arizona would normally
expect, this national recovery is not normal. But the growth rate has been accelerating. For the
first seven months of the year over the similar 2012 period, Arizona employment is up 2.1% and
the Phoenix MSA is up 2.6% on a year over year basis. Even on a month-over-month basis, the
declines from July over June were considerably less than normal. On a year-over-year basis, ten
of the eleven employment sectors were up. Only “Other Services” was down (1.2%) while
leisure and hospitality (13.0); education and health services (12.0%); trade, transportation and
utilities (9.6%); and construction (8.0%) lead the way for the 10 sectors that were up. For July
over July, the state was up 2.8% while Greater Phoenix was up 3.1% and Greater Tucson was up
2.4%. So, the gains have been spread across the general economy and seem to be modestly
accelerating. At least this is good news
a little about me and my expertise – video
Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Investment Properties in Phoenix.
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Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS
I am a successful Commercial Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 15 years and I worked with banks and their commercial REO properties for 3 years. I am also a commercial and Landspecialist in Phoenix and a Landspecialist in Arizona.
WHETHER YOU LEASE OR OWN
NOW IS THE TIME FOR YOU TO EXPAND, UPGRADE OR INVEST.
In my opinion we are at bottom of the cycle in Commercial Real Estate in Phoenix, so there is only one way and it’s called we are going up again and now is the time for you to expand, upgrade or invest in Commercial Properties in Phoenix. The prices on deals I may get you will not be around forever.
IF YOU OR ANYBODY YOU KNOW IS IN TROUBLE WITH YOUR BUSINESS, AS MANY AMERICANS ARE IN THE MOMENT, AND ARE ABOUT TO LOSE YOUR COMMERCIAL PROPERTY, PLEASE CONTACT ME. IF YOUR BANK IS BEHAVING BADLY I MAY BE ABLE TO HELP YOU GET OUT OF SOME OR MAYBE A LOT OF FUTURE HEADACHES.
WAITING TO SELL YOUR LAND ? TIMES CHANGE / IT’S TIME
We barely could give land away the last few years, but times are changing. Even in those meager years, I sold more land across the state than most other brokers. Before the real estate crash I was a land specialist in Arizona with millions of dollars of transactions, but then I had to change and also sell other commercial investment properties, which was fun, but I am a Commercial Landspecialist in Arizonal, a Commercial Land Specialist in Phoenix and love to sell land, one acre to thousands of acres.
Since I was a Land Specialist in Arizona and a Land Speciaost in Phoenix many of my clients, Sellers and Buyers remember me and now they are calling me again, so this is the time to get back into land and none of my clients, including future clients, will miss out on getting their best deal.
Also, if you are up-side down on your land, like many Americans, and the lender is giving you a hard time, now is the time to put your land on the market. Lenders are making deals now with short sales. I have been working with banks for many years – I learned how to work with them.
If you have any questions about the 1 to 3 above, about Commercial Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial Investment Properties in Arizona, I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion in Commercial Properties in Phoenix or Commercial Properties in Arizona with you.Obviously I am also in this to make money, but it could be a win-win situation for all of us.
Please reply by e-mail email@example.com or call me 520-975-5207 (cell) 602-778-5110 (office direct).
Walter Unger CCIM
Kasten Long Commercial
2821 E. Camelback Road, Suite 600
Phoenix, AZ 85016
Office : 602-445-4141
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