You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take, and if you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur. FOR OVER 20 YEARS, I HAVE WORKED EXTENSIVELY WITH OWNERS AND BUYERS IN LAND, COMMERCIAL AND INVESTMENT REAL ESTATE IN PHOENIX, TUCSON AND THROUGHOUT ARIZONA. PLEASE LET ME KNOW HOW I CAN HELP YOU. Call me if you want to sell your property and need an estimated value. Phone / Prefer cell: 520-975-5207
Office: 480-948-5554 or email me walterunger@ccim.net. – What is a CCIM.
In Business and in Life you don’t get what you deserve, you get what you Negotiate.
contact me if you want me to get you the value of your property.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY LISTINGS.
Are you ready to sell or purchase your Land or Commercial Building in Phoenix, Scottsdale, Maricopa County and Pinal County, Arizona, please call me?
Walter Unger CCIM – cell: 520-975-5207 – walterunger@ccim.net
bigAZBIGMEDIA 6/8/2023
Here are five reasons we won’t see a housing market crash soon.
It’s been a housing market roller coaster the past few years with no shortage of news about record-high prices, outrageous negotiations (like all-cash deals and cars), and questions about if there’s a bubble and if it’ll burst. The pendulum swung from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market as the effects of the pandemic changed people’s behaviors. Families started feeling cramped after sheltering in place for more than a year, global supply chain issues picked up, and then-low interest rates began climbing.
While we’ve seen the stark rise in home prices flattening out a little from 2022, this downturn won’t wholly correct itself to pre-pandemic levels.
The most recent Case-Schiller Home Price Index, one of the leading indicators of U.S. residential real estate prices, showed that home prices decreased quarter over quarter but are still 7.7% higher than a year ago. It’s worth noting that seasonality plays a role here, too, so we currently see some prices slightly lower given the time of year.
So yes, we’re still in an affordability crisis and unlikely to see the complete housing market tumble — let alone a housing market crash — in 2023. Here’s why.
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1. Homeowners are reluctant to sell
We’ve seen this anecdotally as homeowners come to Splitero to access their home equity instead of selling. Now the data is out: January 2023 U.S. Existing Home Sale volumes are down 34% compared to January 2022, according to the National Association of Realtors. This is the 12th straight monthly decline in existing home sales.
Homeowners have a low motivation to sell because many are locked into low-rate mortgages and don’t want to give up that rate to sell and repurchase a more expensive home with a higher mortgage rate. With affordability at an all-time low, homeowners are finding ways to access their home equity for renovation projects to suit their needs better. Homeowners also use their increased equity to pad retirement and savings accounts, pay off high-interest credit card debt, and supplement living expenses as inflation grows.
Source: Mike DelPrete
2. Credit availability is exceptionally tight, and regulators removed faulty financial products
The housing market is expected to stay strong, mainly due to the current limited credit availability. This is a significant contrast to the situation in 2008, where obtaining loans was considerably more accessible for borrowers. During that time, several unsafe mortgage products enabled individuals with low credit scores to qualify for loans, but those have since been eliminated from the market. The 30-year fixed mortgage is the primary product, providing a more stable option for borrowers and lenders.
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
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3. Mortgage delinquency rates are low
Mortgage delinquency rates — when a homeowner is late on a required mortgage payment — are currently low. This is because lenders aren’t lending to borrowers with bad credit scores. They’re only lending to those with a pristine credit score, related to point #2 about less risky financial products on the market. This means the quality of the loans is better than before, which directly correlates to default rates.
Source: FRED – Federal Bank of St. Louis
4. Home equity is at an all-time high which means foreclosures aren’t coming
Homeowners have an incredible amount of home equity compared to 2008, putting them in good financial shape and allowing them to sell their property for a profit. According to CoreLogic’s Home Equity Report, individuals with outstanding mortgages in the United States experienced a 15.8% rise in equity during the third quarter of 2022. On average, borrowers saw a gain of $34,300 in equity over the same period.
Data from Yardeni Research shows a record amount of $29.6T of home equity in the U.S.
This accumulated home equity is helping homeowners avert foreclosures. Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented 1% of sales in January, identical to last month and one year ago, according to the NAR.
5. The housing market is starved for inventory
Over the last few years, the demand from lack of inventory has been one factor driving that home price appreciation. Back in 2008, during the housing crisis, many tiny home builders went out of business, and new builds plummeted. New builds started to pick up again, but the global supply chain shortage increased the cost of construction materials like wood and slowed the progress.
New home listings are at a record low, according to Realtor.com’s January Housing Trends Report, which showed new listings were down about 5% year-over-year in January. Compared to the previous month’s 21% decrease and November’s 17.2% decline, the current rate of decline is significantly lower. Despite this improvement, new listings still lag behind pre-pandemic levels between 2017 and 2019 by 25%.
Source: Realtor.com January 2023 Housing Trends Report
However, we have seen builder sentiment rising.
Because of low inventory and high demand, a combination of things will need to happen for prices to plummet.
Since the real estate market is starving for inventory, there’s significant pent-up demand. We will unlikely see home price appreciation slow with a single factor like interest rates. Inflation, affordability, interest rates, supply, and other factors will likely need to combine over the year to make home prices drop.
If no housing market crash, what will happen in 2023?
The housing market sentiment is growing, especially in home equity investments. We’ve seen cautious optimism from institutional REITs adding HEIs to their portfolios.
We’ll continue to see homeowners accessing their home equity to pay off high-interest debt, start renovation projects, or pad their savings and retirement accounts. We’re seeing homeowners looking to access their built-up home equity to gain financial freedom with no additional monthly payments and no new debt while the housing market remains hotter than usual.
Author: Michael Gifford is CEO of Splitero.
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FROM ME: FOR OVER 20 YEARS, I HAVE WORKED EXTENSIVELY WITH OWNERS AND BUYERS IN LAND, COMMERCIAL AND INVESTMENT REAL ESTATE IN PHOENIX, TUCSON AND THROUGHOUT ARIZONA. Now is the time, if you are thinking of selling or purchasing your Land or Commercial Building in Phoenix, Scottsdale, Maricopa County, Pinal County, Arizona / Office / Retail / Industrial / Multi-family / please call me on my cell 520-975-5207 or e-mail me walterunger@ccim.net. Investors and Owner / Users need to really know the market today before making a move. The market has a lot of moving parts. What is going on socio-economically, what is going on demographically, what is going on with location, with competing businesses, with public policy in general — all of these things affect the quality of selling or purchasing your Commercial Properties, Commercial Investment Properties and Commercial and large tracts of Residential Land Therefore, you need a broker, a CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) who is a recognized expert in the commercial and investment real estate industry and who understands your needs. I am marketing my listings on Costar, Loop-net, CCIM, CREXi, Catylist, and various other web sites. I also sold hundreds millions of dollars’ worth of Investment Properties / Owner User Properties in Retail, Office Industrial, Multi-family and Land in Arizona and therefore I am working with brokers, Investors and Developers. I am also a CCIM and through this origination ( www.ccim.com ) I have access to marketing not only in the United States, but also international
DISCOVER WHAT IS HAPPENING IN ARIZONA
History of Arizona from 900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.
What is a CCIM. In Business and in Life you don’t get what you deserve, you get what you Negotiate.
contact me if you want the me to get you the value of your property.
Walter Unger CCIM – cell: 520-975-5207 – walterunger@ccim.net
Click here to find out what is a CCIM:
CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY LISTINGS.
Are you ready to sell or purchase your Land or Commercial Building in Phoenix, Scottsdale, Maricopa County and Pinal County, Arizona, please call me?
Walter Unger CCIM
Associate Broker
West USA Commercial Division
14350 N. 87th. Street, Suite 180
Scottsdale AZ, 85260
Phone: 480-948-5554
Cell: 520-975-5207
History of Arizona from 900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.
History of Arizona from 900 BC – 2017 -Timeline.
WHY PHOENIX? AMAZING!!! POPULATION IN 1950 – 350 K PEOPLE; “NOW 5 MIL”. – “5TH. BIGGEST CITY IN USA”
- DEMOGRAPHIC FACTS ABOUT MARICOPA COUNTY:
Walter Unger CCIM – walterunger@ccim.net – 1-520-975-5207 – http://walter-unger.com
Timeline of Phoenix, Arizona history
Facts of Arizona – year 1848 to 2013
CLICK HERE: Arizona Opportunity Zones As We Understand /maps. Interested!!! Please contact me.
Feel free to contact Walter regarding any of these stories, the current market, distressed commercial real estate opportunities and needs, your property or your Investment Needs for Comercial Properties in Phoenix, Tucson, Arizona.
Walter Unger CCIM
Associate Broker
West USA Commercial Division
14350 N. 87th. Street, Suite 180
Scottsdale AZ, 85260
Phone: 480-948-5554
Cell: 520-975-5207
FOR OVER 20 YEARS, I HAVE WORKED EXTENSIVELY WITH OWNERS AND BUYERS IN LAND, COMMERCIAL AND INVESTMENT REAL ESTATE IN PHOENIX, TUCSON AND THROUGHOUT ARIZONA. PLEASE LET ME KNOW HOW I CAN HELP YOU PLEASE CALL ME
CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY LISTINGS.
Also Call me if you need an estimated value of your Property.
Call me if you want to see a map with what is in the Construction Pipeline for Apartments.
Prefer cell: 520-975-5207, or email me walterunger@ccim.net. CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL MY LISTINGS.
Check out my professional profile and connect with me on LinkedIn.
Walter Unger CCIM, CCSS, CCLS
I am a successful Commercial / Investment Real Estate Broker in Arizona now for 20 years. If you have any questions about Commercial / Investment Properties in Phoenix or Commercial / Investment Properties in Arizona, I will gladly sit down with you and share my expertise and my professional opinion with you. I am also in this to make money therefore it will be a win-win situation for all of us.
Please reply by e-mail walterunger@ccim.net or call me on my cell 520-975-5207
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